Zero set to be one of the biggest Blockbuster of Shah Rukh Khan's Career, Box Office Prediction!

December 20, 2018

Zero set to be one of the biggest Blockbuster of Shah Rukh Khan's Career, Box Office Prediction!

Guest Post is written by Bobby Sidhu
You can follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BobbyS_BO

It is no secret that Shah Rukh Khan, one of the biggest movie stars in the world (if not the biggest!) has been struggling at the box office this decade in the domestic market. From 2010 onwards, only one film of his was a Blockbuster: Chennai Express. Other films have underperformed (Ra One, Dilwale, Raees, etc) while other films were declared outright flops (Fan and JHMS). 

Shortly after Dilwale performed so poorly at the box office, I wrote an article mentioning how Shah Rukh Khan’s run as a box office superstar was coming to an end and how he should now focus on Shah Rukh Khan – the actor. His next release after that, Fan, bombed at the box office as well. Things got even worse, when his last release, Jab Harry Met Sejal, finished with a disastrous lifetime collection of approx. 60 crore nett.

But, fate works in its own strange ways!

There has been a lot of positivity attached to Zero ever since it was announced that director Aanand L Rai, who has directed some hugely appreciated films such as Raanjhanaa, Tanu Weds Manu, and Tanu Weds Manu Returns will be directing a film starring Shah Rukh Khan. Besides the fact that this is a powerful director/actor combination on paper, they are also similar in the fact that both are known for their portrayal of love stories in their films, one as an actor and one as a director. The anticipation got even higher once everyone got to know that SRK would be playing a dwarf in the film! Of course, the icing on the cake then was the announcement of the two female leads: Katrina Kaif and Anushka Sharma. 

When the teaser of Zero was releasing on the first day of this year, many people were skeptical. “Is SRK going to overhype his film once again only for the film to underperform?” “Is he once again just relying on VFX?” Truthfully, I was also a little worried once SRK attached a teaser of the film to Salman’s Race 3 on Eid, a song where SRK and Salman were both together. I also wondered if SRK was relying on Salman to sell his film, and things got worse once Salman’s own film Race 3 performed poorly at the box office.


One interview I watched of Aanand L Rai changed my opinion! In the interview, he said that he believes that Zero has turned out to be a very good film. He also assured that he focused on the story of the film, not just VFX. Also, it is important to mention that Aanand Rai and SRK have been showing immense confidence in their product. As a matter of fact, SRK has mentioned that he has already discussed the idea of doing another film with Aanand Rai! The last time I recall such confidence from a team, particularly from a director, was from Kabir Khan in 2015. This interview was conducted on Komal Nahta’s show before the release of Bajrangi Bhaijaan, and he mentioned something along the lines of how he can’t wait to show the film to everyone!

In the beginning of November, the theatrical trailer of Zero released, which met with a terrific response from the audience. SRK as a dwarf, his equation with a handicapped Anushka Sharma, Katrina Kaif’s entry….everything was met with a tremendous response. The song, Mera Naam Tu, became a chartbuster. The SRK/Salman song may not be a chartbuster, but will rock the single screens.

So, what’s my prediction? It’s this: Zero’s box office performance will be the exact opposite of it’s name. This one is a BLOCKBUSTER and will emerge the highest grosser of 2018!

Comparisons will be made to Kamal Hassan as a dwarf from his film Appu Raja. However, there is still a novelty factor attached to SRK as a dwarf, particularly because no star in recent times has played a dwarf. Also, SRK’s character of Bauua Singh is a character that the audience will find extremely entertaining, especially with his dialogues. Films where SRK plays an over-the-top character filled with comedy are loved by the masses, as we saw with Chennai Express and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi (Raj character), as both films became Blockbusters!

Anushka Sharma, portraying a handicapped character, is sure to win a ton of accolades! This role is a complete departure from what she has done before, and given her potential with talent, it seems certain that she would have pulled it off the way director Aanand Rai would have wanted her to!

Katrina Kaif! What can be said that hasn’t already been said about her? Her arrival in the trailer changes the entire atmosphere of the trailer in a positive way, which I had also mentioned about Thugs of Hindostan which was a dead trailer until she appeared. She looks gorgeous, and her Husn Parcham song will contribute enormously to repeat viewings of the film from the audience. There are seem to be some hidden, dark elements about her character which haven’t been revealed, but we saw a glimpse of it in one of the early posters. Katrina seems to have put in her best effort in this film, and I feel she will actually be the show-stealer of the film, and that this will turn out to be one of her career best performances!

Finally, a word on director Aanand Rai. The genius of the director is how well he is able to merge material for the class audience and the mass audience. If SRK/Anushka’s story with Anushka as a handicapped character will appeal to the class audience, then SRK/Katrina’s story where Katrina plays the glamorous, huge film star will appeal to the mass audience. If Mera Naam Tu is a slow romantic song that would be mostly appreciated by the class audience, then Issaqbaazi with SRK/Salman will rock the single screens. Of course, there seem to be some hidden elements in the film that we will have to watch the film to see.

Note: Baahubali 2 has not been included in this analysis, as I am only comparing Hindi films. 

Opening Day analysis: There are three films I kept in mind while predicting, all three of which also released on a non-holiday during Christmas period: 2013’s Dhoom 3 (32 crore nett), 2016’s Dangal (29 crore nett), and 2017’s Tiger Zinda Hai (34 crore nett). If we compare Zero with the lower of the three, Dangal, then Zero is sure to be the higher opener: Zero has many crowd-pulling elements in its favor, looking like an entertainer with SRK/Katrina/Anushka, curiosity of SRK as a dwarf, director Aanand Rai, and chartbuster music, whereas Dangal’s music wasn’t of the chartbuster variety and the film mainly just relied on Aamir Khan to bring the audience to theatres. However, comparing Zero to Tiger Zinda Hai, then it must be mentioned that Tiger Zinda Hai was presented like a big YRF action extravaganza of Salman/Katrina and was the sequel to Blockbuster Ek Tha Tiger to generate that pre-release hype. Zero doesn’t have that sequel advantage, and so its opening day will be lower than Tiger Zinda Hai. One may also use Sanju as a comparison, which released this year also did 34 crore nett, but Sanju also had a brand value attached to it when one reads “Sanju - directed by Rajkumar Hirani” as one immediately recalls their popular Munna Bhai franchise and the fact that the nation wanted to see a biopic on Sanjay Dutt. Again, Zero doesn’t have these factors in its favor. Lastly, Dhoom 3. This film still proves to be huge competition for most films even five years after its release, with even Tiger Zinda Hai last year (another big YRF action extravaganza sequel) beating the non-holiday record of Dhoom 3 by a mere 2 crore nett! Clearly, the level of buzz and anticipation for Dhoom 3 was on a different level altogether like an earthquake, and even Zero won’t be able to match its opening. 

To sum it up, I feel that the opening day collection of Zero will be somewhere in between of Dangal (29 crore nett) and Dhoom 3 (32 crore nett). 

Opening Weekend analysis: Zero will show huge growth over the weekend owing to the positive public WOM (Word of Mouth). The Sunday collections will be approximately 48 crore nett, which is higher than Sanju (46 crore nett) and Tiger Zinda Hai (45 crore nett). Also, positive WOM for films tend to be at its peak in the opening weekend when it’s the hardcore fans coming and spreading that positive WOM which results in a fantastic weekend trend, and then over the weeks the trend lessens as the huge positivity of the WOM becomes a bit lower as more neutrals watch the film. 


Lifetime Collection Analysis: Now, here’s the big one!I am certain that Zero will cross the 300 crore mark, but to measure exactly where it will finish, I decided to look at previous films released on Christmas that also crossed this mark: PK, Dangal, and Tiger Zinda Hai. Tiger Zinda Hai last year crossed PK’s collections despite the WOM not being as strong as that of PK. Zero will have better WOM than Tiger Zinda Hai, so I’m sure that Zero will beat both of those films!

The big comparison then is of Zero and Dangal, the latter which currently holds the record of being the highest grossing Hindi film of all time. Comparing public WOM, I feel that the WOM of Zero will be less than that of Dangal. Zero will be well appreciated, but it also does have some gimmicks attached to it (the Salman song, SRK doing his signature pose, etc) that may restrict its appreciation to SRK fans and some others, whereas Dangal was a film that anyone in any nook or corner of India would have appreciated. Also, Dangal had a clean release with no competition, whereas Rohit Shetty’s Simmba releases next week and will take some screens. Overall, I feel that Dangal will still hold the record as the highest grosser, and Zero will become the second highest grosser!

My Box Office Predictions for Zero:

Opening Day: 30.5 crore nett

Opening Three-Day Weekend: 115 crore nett

Lifetime Collections: 356 crore nett

Overall Verdict: Blockbuster 

As I mentioned, I had written an article after Dilwale about Shah Rukh Khan’s run as a box office superstar coming to an end….I’m glad to be proven wrong! Here are some other interesting stats:

-Once Zero becomes the highest grosser of the year, it will be SRK’s first time in 8 years that he would have achieved this feat: the last time was Om Shanti Om, which released in 2007. Co-incidentally, that film released against Ranbir Kapoor’s film Saawariya, and now in the competition for HGOTY 2018, SRK is once again defeating Ranbir Kapoor, as Sanju had the HGOTY spot till now!

-SRK will achieve a HUGE feat this year: his film will be a bigger hit/grosser than a film of Salman Khan (Race 3), and a film of Aamir Khan/Amitabh Bachchan (Thugs of Hindostan). As a matter of fact, the last time SRK had a film that was a bigger hit/grosser than a Salman and Aamir film released in the same year was back in 2001, when Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham was bigger than Aamir’s films Lagaan and Dil Chahta Hai and Salman’s Chori Chori Chupke Chupke

-SRK seems to be delivering a Blockbuster every 5 years: His last two were Chennai Express, released 5 years ago in 2013, and RNBDJ, released 5 years before that in 2008. 

Overall, it’s time to celebrate for all SRK fans!

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58 comments:

  1. Ankur please check the advance booking reports. Its struggling big time to open as top three opener of the year. And biggest threat is Simbha next week. So in South KGF will eat screens and in Hindi belts it will be Simbha.
    Sorry to say but this film's music has been a let down as songs are OK types and again it seems that we are going to see only Romantic Sharukh in this film.
    But still lets hope for best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The post by Bobby Sidhu is an outright amateur post and completely impractical...he is probably a die hard SRK fan and so he is overjoyed that after 5-6 years finally a decent looking SRK movie is coming.

      Both SRK n Anand Rai know that he is no longer the bankable actor he once was and so once the movie crossed a certain budget. They have included many guest appearances including Salman himslef to garner some attention.

      This movie due to a good release time might cross 200 ce at best but that is it...240 cr is the limit.

      Neutral audiences like me are still not very convinced with the trailer n songs.

      Delete
    2. Kbhi khushi kbhi gam me....amitabh , ritik , karina thi , karan johar tha , famaily movie thi



      Ooska comparision dil chahta h , or lagaan se kyo ??

      Delete
  2. collections will be below 180cr and you are taking about 356 cr mark..
    were u drunk while writing this kind of article..

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kuch jyada nahi ho gya chalo phir bhi hope for the best, wish luck to srk sir as he is really a good star

    ReplyDelete
  4. totally false prediction it will be a big flop 170 corrore max.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bobby's most predictions come true.he predicted TOH lifetime collection 178 crore.although it fell short and finished at 145 crore. But his prediction that Thugs will be rejected by audiences become true. I hope his prediction of Zero also become true.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Ankur, I totally agree on whatever you have said in the article. In fact, this one is a great piece of in-depth & comprehensive analysis. Still, lifetime collection of Rs. 356 Cr seems unrealistic.
    For me, 200+-20 seems to be final figure. Simbaa releasing after a week will impact business of Zero, even if Simbaa doesn't look promising, it will still impact screen count and business of Zero.

    ReplyDelete
  7. KGF is gonna create huge setback for this film
    Also MAARI 2 and ANTARIKSHAM , will restrict film's business in respective territories

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hahaha super flop hakla is now only a flop actor who did not know what to do hahahaha

    ReplyDelete
  9. It will be hit only not blockbuster.....

    ReplyDelete
  10. It will be one more flop.nothing else. His downfall started because of salman who is not an actor. Chennai Express is blockbuster because it was released on Eid . Shahrukh should release his movie on eid only. Then only he will be no1 . Sharukh is great actor comparison to salman. He should understand dynamic of market.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Super flop hogi. 356 crore sharukh ki last 3 movie ne mila ke nahi kamaye. Prediction sun ke hi hasi aa gyi.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Zero will work. . But ye kuch jyada hi nhi ho gya bhaai?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Looks like it is ghost written by Sumit Kadel!

    ReplyDelete
  14. TOTALLY BIASED ARTICLE. FOR EARNING 356 CONTENT HAVE TO CLICK VERY BIG TIME AND IF WE LOOK AT FILM STORY ITS UNLIKLY TO BE HAPPEN. WELL I CANT SAY ANYTHING MUCH ABOUT THIS BECAUSE ITS AANAND L RAI FILM WHO GIVE BIG BLOCKBUSTER WITH KANGNA.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I wish that your prediction comes true (since it is going to benefit our Film Industry).....

    But sorry to say this, that after reading your article I feel that some Fan wrote this article rather than someone who knows trade.......What kind of stupid logic you have put in this article....seriously I was laughing while reading it.......Trust me even with the Positive WOM it is difficult for Zero to hit 250cr mark (though I want it to cross that mark), and the biggest reason is KGF and Simba.....Note both these movies are more mass appealing and to get those Magical Figure of 300cr, movie should perform well in both Mass and Class Audience.......Yes I know A.L.Rai movies have some mass factor but when there are 2 other movies available (which are completely mass movie) than single screen audience will go for that option.....

    So don't predict as a Fan.....and it always good to predict low and get high number at the end......At the end I wish best for the movie.....

    ReplyDelete
  16. Will be in the region of 280-310 Cr. Super duper hit

    ReplyDelete
  17. ie ke Likha h Bhai.....kya chutiyapa h.....

    ReplyDelete
  18. 356 cr me se 100 cr Kam kr de baki sab thik h.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Are You Alright??
    What Was That..
    Dude, In Best Scenario Zero Will Collect In The Range Of200-250 cr..There Is Simbaa To Stop Zero Badly..
    Mark My Words..This Prediction Is Going To Be Wrong Utterly..

    ReplyDelete
  20. Maximum 110 เค•เคฐोเคก़

    ReplyDelete
  21. Opening day = 35 crore
    First Weekend = 125 crore
    Christmas day = 45 crore
    First week = 230 crore
    After 2nd week = 315 crore
    Lifetime = 340 crore

    Simmba lifetime = 220 crore

    ReplyDelete
  22. Good one now it's confirmed. Jeeta rahy bobby

    ReplyDelete
  23. Feel his prediction will become true..this movie has something special..trust Anand l Rai and never doubted the actor srk ....from fauji and circus to being among the richest actor in the world .I guess haters are just envious and know they LL never reach such heights.. pls appreciate the hard work and inspire to be great..stop praying for downfall of such an amazing talent!!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Srk movies are not even collecting 100 Cr, let alone 200 or 300, I know Ur love for srk ,but this article is nothing but a fake propaganda, I bet at max it wl collect 130-150

    ReplyDelete
  25. Shahrukh khan was a giant decade back,he hampered his image badly with bad selection of movies in recent past,actually he never looked macho to do hard core action flicks what Salman capitalized and become superstar whereas Aamir's selection of movies and acting skills barring one or two movies were excellent,now coming back to shahrukh what all he needed was to select good scripts and improvise himself for doing different types of roles other then lover boy types as he is getting older,i didn't seen his last 3-4 movies after watching trailers but this time he is looking promising with Aanand L roy's backing, but to get the kind of prediction of 356 crores he will have to again win the audience heart and after delivering 2-3 good movies only he also can achieve the goal,but for now it looks impossible and even if it is done may purely be because of Mr A.L.Roy,good luck shahrukh khan

    ReplyDelete
  26. People forget when CE released it over shadowed OUATIM. There is a feelin with this movie it will create havoc!!
    The fools who are getting excited about Simmba??? Come on a remake and a shit one???
    KGF?? Oh please just watch Gunday again!!! Lol
    Inshallah zero will please his fans and haters!!

    ReplyDelete
  27. 356 Crore......

    What a joke.......

    Kya liye the Bhai........

    Rum , Wishing, Vodka.........?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Great article! Very ambitious. Being an SRK fan myself. I just hope all this predictions come true!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Opening day of zero around 32 to 38
    2nd day depend on audience reaction
    If the like around 40 dislike around 25 to 30
    3rd day same like 45 plus dislike 30
    Weekend like around 105 to 115 dislike 90 to 100
    Life time collection like 250 plus dislike 150

    ReplyDelete
  30. Srk movies nowadays dont have repeat value anymore. Last was CE, but that was bec of entertainment.
    Srk looks old in romantic roles now

    ReplyDelete
  31. Bobby Sindhu are you mad?. How three feet wiil deliver blockbuster.It will be duster movie.

    ReplyDelete
  32. movie gone blockbuster just because sulman fan watch movies of amir. due to trolled by amir fans this time Sultan fan not watch TOH so it bit the dust.
    this time SRK fully put weight in Sulman khan arms and even he made back his friendship with him. so sulman fan mostly preffer to watch this movie.
    I guess this movie have enough chance to touch 280 to 315 crore. business in india.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Replies
    1. right bhai 2.0 ko v yesha bolte he. achi contact hogi to. zero v super hit

      Delete
    2. right bhai 2.0 ko v yesha bolte he. achi contact hogi to. zero v super hit

      Delete
    3. right bhai 2.0 ko v yesha bolte he. achi contact hogi to. zero v super hit

      Delete
  34. Furst day 35 second day 40 3rd day 45 4thday 25 5thday 35 6th day 20 7th day 20 8th day 15 9th day 18 10th day 20

    ReplyDelete
  35. Paid promotion..hmmm..max 230 if script found excellent...Pura nahi chalta to Aadha kaise cahlega..

    ReplyDelete
  36. Paid promotion..hmmm..max 230 if script found excellent...Pura nahi chalta to Aadha kaise cahlega..

    ReplyDelete
  37. I'm Again Here After Two Days Collection..Is Anyone Else Here??
    As I Said Earlier In My Comment, This Time You Made It Utterly Wrong Mr.Bobby...

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi Bobby you need to be more cautious next time.

    ReplyDelete
  39. ๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ 350cr bobby I like you joke agar Tuesday X mas Nahi hota na to 90cr bhi nahi ho pata lifetime

    ReplyDelete

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