Zero Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop?

December 20, 2018

Zero Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop?

Zero is one of the most important and biggest releases of the year. Even more so for Mr. Shah Rukh Khan who has failed to deliver a big HIT in a long time. His arch rival Salman and Aamir may have under-performed at box office in 2018 with Race 3 and Thugs of Hindostan respectively. But they have managed to stay afloat by giving blockbuster Hits in recent past. One or two debacle will not harm their box office domination that much. But same can’t be said about SRK right now.

His last releases Fan and JHMS both have emerged as a flop at box office, whereas Raees just managed Semi Hit status. He now needs a clean Hit and may even a big hit to bounce back with a bang.

Zero has all ingredients to emerge as a big hit at box office. Apart from SRK, film also stars Katrina Kaif and Anushka Sharma in lead roles. Film is directed by talented Aanand L Rai whose track record is amazing by delivering multiple hits in last few years. Even if he is in 70-80% of his form then ‘Zero’ is a sure shot winner.

In addition film is releasing on festive time of Christmas. If we go by the last decade record, most of the biggest hits of the year have come in Christmas period. Tiger Zinda Hai (2017), Dangal (2016), P.K. (2014) are some of the recent Christmas Blockbusters who have shattered box office. Interestingly it is SRK films again in last decade which have under-performed in Christmas time.

Christmas and New year time is one of the most lucrative time of the year. School and colleges are closed and each day serve as a holiday/partial holiday. Exhibitors tend to keep ticket prices high as like weekend which also helps the film business cause.

But it is not all smooth going for ‘Zero’. Although trailer of the film is liked by everyone. Same can’t be said about the songs released till date. ‘Mera Naam Tu’ has gathered good momentum but rest have not.

Also, there is a big release happening in KGF which will dent the business of ‘Zero’ atleast in South India. In North though it shouldn’t be a trouble, unless KGF does a Baahubali. Plus, Simmba is scheduled for release on 28th of December, which will definitely eat into the business of ‘Zero’ unless later emerge as classic. 

If ‘Zero’ emerge as a highly appreciated movie then it will have zero% affect from Simmba in second week. In past we have seen many films emerge as a big success despite having clash in subsequent weeks. Only issue is if Zero receives mixed to negative report, then it will be struggle ahead specially from second Friday onward.

All talk is set and done and now without any further delay let's do the box office prediction of much awaited 'Zero'!


Zero Economics


Budget -> Rs 210-220 crores approx (including P&A). Official statement on budget is awaited.

Non Theatrical Recovery -> Zero is already in safe hand for makers as Satellite rights are sold to Zee and Digital rights are sold to Netflix. Music rights are sold to Tseries. Exact amount of the deals are not known as SRK has signed multiple film deals with all the parties. We can make an assumption that combined recovery from all three would have at least Rs 100+ crores.

Coming to distribution rights. Film India theatrical rights are sold to various parties for approx Rs 100-105 crores. Overseas rights are sold for Rs 40-45 crores. Hence, combined recovery from Satellite, Digital, Music, Worldwide theatrical distribution is a whopping Rs 245-250 crores approx. Means, makers are already into profit. Plus, if there is surplus revenue flow from theatricals, makers will get their part of share from distributors.


As for the Indian distributors film needs to collect in around Rs 200 crore nett in India to break even and beyond that is profit for them.

Now let's evaluate how much 'Zero' needs to be a Hit!

As India distribution rights are sold for approx Rs 100-105 crores. Film will need to do business in around Rs 200 crore nett to break even. Anything above will be profit and less will be loss for distributors.

Means, film will attain Clean HIT at around Rs 205+ crore nett mark. If film collects between 160-200 crore nett will be either Average or Semi Hit. Anything lower than Rs 150-160 crore mark film will be a below average or flop or disaster depending on final outcome.

Zero Verdict -

Clean HIT -> Above 205 crore nett.

Below Average, Average, Above Average, Semi Hit -> 160-200 crore nett.

Flop -> Below 155 crore nett.

Box Office Prediction -

First Day (Friday): Expected around 25-30 crore nett considering normal working Friday.

First Weekend (Fri to Sun):

If accepted: 105+ crore nett.
If mixed: 80-100 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 75 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 250-275+ crore nett.
If mixed: 160-240 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 150 crore nett.

Our EstimateLooking into all pre-release factors we are predicting 'Zero' business in the region of 200-250 crore nett. That means it should emerge as a Hit/Super Hit at box office! However, if content of 'Zero' is good to very good then there will be no stopping and it can even go beyond 250-275 crore nett in its lifetime business in India and can even challenge 300 crore or more. Sky is the limit!


There is big possibility that 'Zero' may emerge as the biggest Shah Rukh Khan grosser ever unless film receives mixed or negative reports from theater going audiences.

We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, Simmba second week clash, screen count, trailer response, Christmas factor, SRK star value. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.



VerdictHIT or Super HIT!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest Christmas biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 200, 300 crore or more at box office!




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44 comments:

  1. Zero will be flopbuster again because srk is not trying anything new like his contemporary..he is always doing that romantic movie which is not digestible ...so it will be a lesson to him

    ReplyDelete
  2. My Final Prediction about ZERO :-
    ZERO Total Collection will be above 250 crore.
    Either KGF or SIMMBA Can't stop ZERO's Business.
    The Movie accepted by both Class and Mass audience.
    A totally Family entertainer Movie.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ab bolo zero disaster ho gayee kgf aur simba blockbuster

      Delete
  3. My Final Prediction about ZERO :-
    ZERO Total Collection will be above 250 crore.
    Either KGF or SIMMBA Can't stop ZERO's Business.
    The Movie accepted by both Class and Mass audience.
    A totally Family entertainer Movie.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stamped it :- gonna be super hit. . .

    ReplyDelete
  5. My prediction considering every factor is around Rs. 175 Crore.

    ReplyDelete
  6. How come a big budget film 2.0 with 600 crores needs 170-180 crores for hit status and zero movie with 210 crores needs 205+ crores for hit status. Explain please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Beacuse zero is one language film hence all its recovery is needed from hindi language only unlike 2.0 which is a multiple language film

      Delete
    2. Rohit 400 crores difference even if it is not releasing in regional languages, I think it's unfair to judge a film with huge budget of 600 crores just because of regional languages.

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    3. Hit status here depends on the distribution rights, not budget. Zero has dist rights of 100 cr so it needs 200 cr to break even.

      Delete
    4. Sale Iske theatrical right 100 crore se jyada mein bike h isliye Isey 200 crore plus chahiye or 2.0 k 80 crore mein bike the isliye Usey 160 crore plus chahiye the. Itna sa dimag nahi h. Kutton k jaisey bhookne lagte h.

      Delete
    5. Multiple language means only hindi and tamil så tamil and hindi 2.0 earned only 380 crore and budjet was allmost 550 crore, SUPER FLOP 2.0

      Delete
  7. Screen kitne hai sir ji bina screen k hi boldiye

    ReplyDelete
  8. Screen kitne hai sir ji bina screen k hi sab kuch boldiye

    ReplyDelete
  9. agar film me achi script hogi to. clean hit no daut.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Double standard economics hai iss website ke. 2.0 ke rights 80 crore main bike to 160 crore for hit chaiye. Jis movie ka 200 crore budget hindi main hi bani hai usse 205 crore for hit sirf budget se 5 crore jyada. Sahi hai khan ki side le ke hi hit karte rho movie toh unse hit hoti nahi.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zero Hindi Boxoffice py 2.0 se zayda collection kare gi its my prediction...

      Delete
    2. Beta phle dhyan se article padha kar. 2.0 hindi rights 80 crore isliye 160 crore chahiye or zero k right 100-105crore k bike h isliye jadd budhi Isey 200 crore plus chahiye hit k liye all depends on theatrical rights movie ka budget kuch bhi ho samjha. 2.0 hindi mein superhit h. Salon Ki jalli padi h 2.0 Ki success se.

      Delete
  11. My prediction is in the region of 260-290 Cr.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Super flop hogi movie.bakwaas trailer. Apne dum pe srk se movie hit nahi hoti ab isliye gaane main salman ko liya hai

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tu bol raha hai flop hogi.... Aur doosri taraf yeh bhi bol raha hai ki hit hogi because if Salman's presence... Abey ek baat pe rehna hit ya flop

      Delete
    2. Salman Bhai ka daar hai is bandy ko ye tu proof hva na ...

      Delete
  13. Zero will be flop bcoz KGF will eat her business

    ReplyDelete
  14. Zero budget 210cr approx.
    Then to be considered a Theatrical Hit, it needs collections above 210cr, say 250cr
    Anything below 210cr makes it a Theatrical collection Flop.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Guaranteed superflop wont cross 70 crore lifetime like other Shahrukh movie....Time to retire GRANDPA

    ReplyDelete
  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  17. ATBB 350 is all set no place for haters noe

    ReplyDelete
  18. Happy to hear from my friend in Dubai..that zero is a sure shot bockbuster coming.. some distributor's reaction who have seen it ..know that they'll strike gold..

    ReplyDelete
  19. Distributor ne toh ko bhi acha reaction diya tha public ne band baja di. Jhooti hype bana rhe hai pata hai ghatiya content hai. Fan race 3 ke liye bhi distributor reaction yehi tha

    ReplyDelete
  20. bhai khans ke contact he to. koi v film aye to. koi farak nehi podega. aki ke 2.0 achi film fir v 200 croce.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Zero will be the biggest Blockbuster of bollywood history

    ReplyDelete
  22. KGF haha all of a sudden this film will impact zero??? Come on guys be real!!! I know there is so much hatred for khans but hate it or love it they have dominated the industry the past 3 decades.
    Music is a let down??? Since when did music play a part in collections? Isnt it about content? We all hear content is king!! This site is so biased its unreal!!!.
    A film with remix and revamp songs is guaranteed to be a blockbuster?? But this??? Lol u guys r too funny

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  23. My friend in Dubai said that this is gonna be epic flopbuster ghatiya story same old type romance waise bhi srk chutiye see need kisse hai

    ReplyDelete
  24. Zero will collect approx 160 crores.
    It ll be another flop for mr srk, unless and until he tries something different..
    coming from a srk fan....

    ReplyDelete
  25. Srk movies only survives if its romantic and esp. if its entertaining. Chennai Express was his last major hit and it was a rom-com. If content is good, it will hit sixer otherwise gone case

    ReplyDelete
  26. Dont compare srk with superstars Salman Akshay

    ReplyDelete

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