November 7, 2018

Thugs Of Hindostan Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop?

Thugs of Hindostan is the biggest Bollywood film ever made till date. Be it the scale, budget or even star cast. Nothing is looking small. For the very first time we will see two legends Amitabh Bachchan and Aamir Khan sharing the screen space.

Apart from both these superstars, there is Katrina Kaif and Fatima Sana Shaikh in pivotal roles. Film is directed by Vijay Krishna Acharya and produced by Aditya Chopra. This team of Aamir-Vijay-Adtiya last time gave landmark Hit in Dhoom 3 and hence, expectation is simply humongous!

There is no doubt that TOH will take historic start at box office. It is releasing on National holiday (day after Diwali puja), which is touted as one of the biggest day for box office. We are damn sure that TOH might become the first Bollywood film to collect 50 crore nett in opening day.

Yes, TOH trailer received mixed response from critics and viewers in social media. But again this is not ground level report. Real theater going audiences are in dire need of some 'mainstream masala potboiler' and TOH has all the ingredients. Film is coming at very right time. No doubt family audiences will come out in huge numbers in festive time!

As opening records are all set to be broken. What will be the lifetime business of the film? Will it be able to break Dangal or aim to be the first Bollywood film to enter 400 crore club? That will only be known after the first show. If film content is good then sky is just the limit. Film will be unstoppable then.

Thugs Of Hindostan Box Office Prediction

Film Budget -> Film cost is Rs 210 crores. Landing cost is Rs 230-240 crore approx including P&A. Official announcement on budget is awaited.

Non-theatrical Recovery -> Film has fetched a record Rs 120-130 crores plus from Satellite and Digital rights. Yes, there is performance clause but again details are not known. Adding Music and other rights film will easily recover Rs 140-150 crores on table. Means around 60% plus is recovered from non-theatrical revenue itself despite film carrying hefty budget. Rest should be easily recovered from India and Overseas theatricals.

Amount need to be recovered from Worldwide theatricals -> Film needs another 90 crore approx to recover from India and Overseas theatricals. This should be easily be recovered from worldwide share inside extended first weekend. Even if film receives negative report still should manage it. This looks a bare minimum.

Screen Count -> 5000 approx in India (Record). Around 4600 screens in Hindi alone. Rest from Tamil and Telugu.

Single Day Business Potential - As TOH is getting released in record breaking 5000 screens in India alone. Film has a potential to collect 60-65 crore nett business with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Thursday) - Film should collect 50 crore nett on opening day with occupancy 80% on average. Highly possible. Depends on Advance booking!

Extended First Weekend Collection (Thursday-Sunday) - A 140-150+ crore nett in opening weekend will be a fantastic start to the campaign. Anything below 120 crore nett will be a disappointment considering the extended Holiday weekend from Thursday till Sunday.

Lifetime Business - If Thugs Of Hindostan word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 300 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should touch or even cross 350 crore nett in its lifetime and may even challenge 400 crore in India. If it manages then TOH will be the first Bollywood film to enter 400 crore club.


First Day (Thursday): Expected around 50 crore nett.

Extended First Weekend (Thu to Sun):

If accepted: 145-150+ crore nett.
If mixed: 120-140 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 115 crore nett.


If accepted: 350+ crore nett.
If mixed: 225-325 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 200 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Thugs Of Hindostan business in the region of 300-325 crore nett. That means it should emerge as a Super HIT at box office! However, if content of TOH is good to very good then there will be no stopping and it can even go beyond 350 crore nett in its lifetime business in India and challenge the likes of Dangal and may even surpass it. Then sky is the limit for the film!

We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos, Diwali Holiday factor and Aamir Khan star value. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

VerdictSuper HIT!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest Diwali biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 200, 300 or 400 crore or more at box office!

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  1. First 4 day agar 200cr nahi hua
    To movie flop.kyunki ye aamir Khan ki movie hai to bada hi accept hai

    1. 4 day me 200 cr ya 100 cr se nhi hota dehaati ganwaar aadmi...lifetime should be more than 300 cr....Race 3 ne weekend me 100cr kiya to kya blockbuster ho gayi....PRDP ne 4 days e 130 cr kya blockbuster ho gayi....

  2. Kya Yar kitni bar Aamir ne proved Kiya hai ki sallu srk jaisi agar
    magar par film nahi hoti...only box office dhamaka hota hai..

    Neutral audience sabhi dekh legi..
    YouTube views ka bhi analysis karo..

    Danagl ka footfall 3.65cr views 63m
    TOH ke views 82M till 8 Nov

    Yane Kam se 4 cr log toh aaram se dekhenge

    4cr footfall yane 450cr ka business!

    First day-58cr



    Note:TOH Aamir ki movie hai content toh neutral audience ko pasand ayega hi

    TOT will break each n every record!

    Aamir The Global Megastar!

    1. No. Aamar Khan fun. 80 cr mr Sunil your thinking education and spoke the

  3. ये आमिर खान की मूवी है अच्छी होगी जैसी आमिर से उम्मीद है ।

  4. My analysis 180 Crore weekend. 500 Crore lifetime.

  5. Aamir ki movie hai to,400+ confirm

  6. Good joke...even if its bad movie, it will do atleast 300cr.

  7. It will easily cross 400 crores this film will cause havoc at the BO

  8. 1st day 100cr karegi aur lifetime 1000cr+

  9. Wishing this movie to be as better as P.K. and Dangal not Dhoom 3.

  10. if it good in tamil or telu then may be 350 crore and its must be super hit otherwise it should be around 275 to between 325. and its to bad collection because highly budgeted movie with full megha star with no competition in 3 weeks what else you require to be a block buster ? but as per tailor film is not good ships copy paste of calibirain movie.

  11. Huge Dissapointment for all the Bollywood Movie lovers and Aamir khan Fan.....

  12. Haha 160 bhi nhi honge biggest disaster in indian cinema 300 cr budgrt





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