June 14, 2018

Race 3 Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Race 3 is the big ticket release this EID (15 June, 2018) festive time. It is the 3rd installment in the series but a lot has changed. Star cast is a total new and story line is also set to be different. Race 3 is still an out and out action thriller. Franchise has got even bigger after Salman Khan joining hands with the team. Hence, expectation is colossal this time.

Now question comes to our mind whether Race 3 will be a Hit or Flop? And if film attains Hit status whether it can go on to become a Super Hit or Blockbuster or even All Time Blockbuster. Honestly anything is possible. Salman and EID have been a deadly combination. Salman might have delivered a flop (below average) in Tubelight last EID. But because of that he might be even more determined this time to deliver a monster Hit at box office. What better than an action film in EID festive time. There is no doubt crowd will go berserk in theaters. But it is not all about just the opening. It is about surviving the whole distance.

What we liked -

1. We liked the theatrical trailer. Action sequence shown in the trailer is just amazing. Lots of high octane scenes.

2. We liked the star cast of Salman Khan, Bobby Deol and Anil Kapoor.

What we disliked - 

1. We disliked casting of Daisy Shah and Saqib Saleem by the looks in the trailer. Hope they prove us wrong in the film.

2. Weaker music in comparison to previous Race series.

Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at whopping INR 140 crores [Production cost + P&A]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made. Salman Khan fees is not included. This makes Race 3 one of the expensive movies of Bollywood.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - A huge amount of INR 110-120 crores is recovered from Satellite, Music, Digital and other rights. Means around 80% of the whole investment is already recovered. 

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - As Salman Khan has not charged his fees for the film, he might have made a deal about Satellite Rights price and profit sharing. This means, Makers have recovered an amount of approx 50-60 crores from other non-theatrical revenues such as Digital, Music and others. Means, film needs a theatrical recovery of around 70-80 crores from India and Overseas. 

Film should atleast collect 30 crore distributor share from Overseas looking at the current buzz. This is bare minimum. Figures could go anywhere in Overseas looking at the pre-release buzz. Considering it as bare minimum, film then needs to recover 40-50 crore distributor share from India. Which mounts to INR 100+ crore nett business in India to break even. Anything above that is profit. That should not be an issue looking at Race 3 hype and buzz.


Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4000+ screens in India. Final screen count may even exceed 4500 screens. One thing is certain that it will be one of the biggest Bollywood release ever if not the biggest.



Single Day Business Potential - Race 3 has potential to collect around 45-50 crore nett in a Single Day with 100% ideal occupancy. This is staggering.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Race 3 being releasing on Friday. EID holiday may fall on Friday or Saturday. So, its very difficult to predict Friday business right now. If Friday is a normal working day (Pre EID) then film should collect in around 25-30 crore nett. If EID Holiday falls on Friday then every opening record is in danger. Film can touch or even go in excess of 40 crore nett.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - A 100-110+ crore nett in opening weekend will be a very good start at box office for Race 3. Anything below say 90 crore nett will be a disappointment considering the Holiday weekend (EID) factor.

Lifetime Business - If Race 3 word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should touch or even cross 250 crore nett in its lifetime and may even challenge the big records at box office.

Prediction:

First Day (Friday): Expected around 28-30 crore nett (if Non Holiday) / Expected around 40 crore nett (if EID Holiday).

First Weekend (Fri to Mon):

If accepted: 110+ crore nett.
If mixed: 90-109 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 89 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 275+ crore nett.
If mixed: 175-274 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 160 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Race 3 business in the region of 250 crore nett. However, if content of Race 3 is good to very good then there will be no stopping and it can even go beyond 275-300 crore nett in its lifetime business in India.

We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos, Race franchise, EID Holiday factor and Salman Khan star value. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

VerdictSUPER HIT!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest EID biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150, 200, 250, 300 crore or more at box office!


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15 comments:

  1. Super Hit is Salman Khan Film 😎❤️

    ReplyDelete
  2. 250 if it had open 4wks then 300/320 but it does not have that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Replies
    1. Tu amir ka fan yeha kya kar raha hai.har din Salman Ko gali deta hai Tu. Tu bhag yeha se. Ja ke amir ki news par.

      Delete
  4. Film ka trailer bhi itna acha nhi h
    Song bhi badhiya nhi h
    Film ke flop hone ke chance h

    Lekin salman khan ki fan following itni jyda h ki flop film ko bhi hit krqa sakti h
    Race3 230-250cr.

    ReplyDelete
  5. hoping to be 300cr with all possible mere looking if accepted.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 1 Day Non Holiday Challenge 40 cr
    .
    Race 3 Same Equation Sultan
    Advance Booking Very Strong For 1 Day
    Because People Confused EID Day
    Just Like Sultan
    .
    Hence
    If EID Saturday
    My Prediction
    1 Day 38 cr
    2 Day 47 cr
    3 Day 46 cr
    4 Day 30 cr
    4 Day 160 cr +
    Verdict-BlockBuster
    .
    .
    Other Wise
    1 Day 28 cr
    2 Day 33 cr
    3 Day 27 cr
    4 Day 14 cr
    4 Day 102 cr
    Verdict-Flop
    .....................
    Super Hit
    Salman Khan Ki Dictionary Me Nahi Hai
    Ya To Flop
    Ya To Blockbuster

    ReplyDelete
  7. 100+cr opening weekend and 90cr weekdays =200cr first week.
    100cr 2nd week=300cr,
    3rd week clash with Sanju....will score 40+ and lifetime possibly to be 350cr

    ReplyDelete
  8. Lol. It's very funny how people are predicting this movie to cross 250 cr even after disaster trailer and head ache songs. My verdict is it will collect maximum between 150-200 cr thanks to did solo release and popularity of Race franchise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trailer tujhe pasand nahi aaya lakin hume pasand aaya waise movie aane toh do, uske baad muhh chupate hue phirna padega

      Delete
    2. Tujhe trailer pasand nai aya tau disaster hogya saley trending pe tha trailer. Ab nikal yahan se

      Delete
  9. Ye harry ghost aur sundi Khurand Dono ek hi profile ke do naam hain 😂😂😂 fans inki jalan ko ignore maaro.. Just wait for the box office to explode this coming weekend with Race 3 and we all know who is the driving factor .. biggest superstar of Indian cinema ever .. as widely acknowledged by everyone include his contemporaries Aamir and SRK .. yes that is one and only Salman Khan 💪💪

    ReplyDelete
  10. BOBBY DEOL KE FANS BHI ADVANCE BOOKING ME AAGE HAI.SALMAM KE SATH IS BAR DEOLS FANS BHI EXCITED HAI...I BOOK MY 6 TICKETS FOR RACE3 AS A BOBBY DEOL FAN.

    ReplyDelete

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