January 9, 2018

Analysis on Padmavat vs PadMan Box Office Clash on 25th January. Aiyaary Shifts to 9th February.

Yesterday only it is officially confirmed that Padmavat is set for release on 25th January, 2018. Film has been postponed many a times because of controversies and finally after getting a censor certificate it has a release date.

Good news is film will enjoy extended Republic Day Weekend. Bad news is film has to clash with another biggie in PadMan. PadMan film is also looking good. Film stars Akshay Kumar in lead role. Yes, this is also true that film buzz and hype is nowhere near the level of Padmavat. But again PadMan is a much smaller film in comparison to Padmavat as far as film budget is concerned. There should not be much difficulty as far as recovery of the film cost.

Padmavat has become an event film now. If film gets proper release in theaters it can go anywhere. Honestly Padmavat has no choice but to come on Republic Day weekend and clash with PadMan. Film is made on huge budget and is one of the costliest film ever in Bollywood. Hence, needs big recovery from Indian theatricals. All good dates are already taken. Plus, film can't get more delayed.

Among all these update, Aiyaary which was also slated for release on Republic Day Weekend have shifted their release date to 9th February, 2018. We think it is a wise decision as they will now have a solo release and its suicidal releasing with another two biggie on same date.


Now coming to Padmavat vs PadMan big clash - 

Case 1 - If somehow Padmavat releases solo.

If somehow Padmavat manages to get solo release on 25th January, then it will easily get 3500-4000 screens in India. It may be more. However, film is banned in Rajasthan and some other places. So, final count may be bit low. Going by the hype film should take bumper opening and if content is liked, lifetime business should be in excess of 200 crores.

Case 2 - If somehow PadMan releases solo.

If somehow PadMan manages to get solo release on 25th January, then film should get 3000-3500 screens across India. Film should take word of mouth opening on 25th January. However, it should strike big on 26th January because of National Holiday. If film content is liked then lifetime business of the film will be 120-130+ crore nett. 

Case 3 - Padmavat vs PadMan clash.

As per latest, box office clash is definitely happening between Padmavati vs PadMan. In this scenario, Padmavat should get a screening of 3000-3500 across India and PadMan should get screening of 1700-2000 screens. However, Padmavat is banned in Rajasthan and few other places. Hence, final count will be bit less for Padmavat and higher for PadMan.

Business of Padmavat will be affected because of clash with PadMan. Film is riding on high budget and needs to go close to 160-170+ crores to break even. Anything less will be big loss. Hence, it is a great risk clashing with PadMan.

PadMan is made on absolute control budget. Hence, there is no concern regarding the economics part. However, problem is if content of Padmavat is positive then PadMan will be badly affected. PadMan may have crossed 100 crore in a solo release, but there is a possibility that it may now stay at 70-80 crore mark, if Padmavat takes hurricane start at ticket counters. This is almost certain now that Padman have to face a storm in the name of Padmavat.

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32 comments:

  1. Clashes are never bad. They tell the real strength of films and stars. I am putting my weight on padman.

    ReplyDelete
  2. wrong prediction... Screen % both of film between 55% #Padmavat nf 45% for #Padman ๐Ÿ‘

    ReplyDelete
  3. Padman will be blown away. The hype that Padmavat have is unprecedented. With Clash 75 Crore for Padman 225 for Padmavat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But bhai Rajasthan or kai place par banned h

      Delete
    2. Makki fans claiming to be Aamir Fans.
      Padman opening 7 cr
      Padmavati opening 22 cr

      Akshay can't stand beside Ranveer with a Clash forget Deepika.
      Patriotic Word of mouth star vs Maratha Warrior Ranveer Singh.
      Bechar makki feel so sorry for him cry ๐Ÿ˜‚

      Delete
  4. No film released in January has crossed 150 crore .Jai ho solo release collected 110 crore 4 years back .Raees in clash collected 129 crore last republic day .
    So padmavat have to carry extraordinary word of mouth to survive after extended weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Without clash with Kaabil Rases should have earned 170 cr minimum

      Delete
  5. I also feel predictions ate wrong here. One thing is clear that clash is happening .
    On 25th jan (Padmavat vs Padman)
    Screencount :-
    Padman = 2300 screens
    Padmavat = 2700 screens
    Day 1 :-
    Padman = 13cr
    Padmavat = 16cr
    Lifetime :-
    Padman = 115cr
    Padmavat = 140cr
    Conclusion :- Padman Blockbuster
    Padmavat Flop
    (I will watch Padman 1st day and no chance for padmavat).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But clash nhi ho , tb to dekhoge na Padmavat

      Delete
    2. Houseful get your brains full. Comparing Word of mouth star with Ranveer? How dare you?

      Delete
    3. @Anil Gupta idiot . If u are mindless then don't comment here.
      Akshay is way bigger superstar than Ranveer. Agar tumhare Ranveer itna badha star hai to big budget + yrf banner and hit songs k saath sirf 50cr kyu Kiya (Befikre).
      Anil u are biggest stupid of world. I pitty on people like u. U are biggest idiots on earth.

      Delete
    4. Only 3 Khans are bigger than him, Akshay and Ajay fans should accept that. Ranveer 2 films guarantee 200 crs Padmavati and Simba temper. He will show Ajay sir how to easily score 200 cr fact!! Maratha Warrior unstoppable!!

      Delete
  6. padman not even cross 80 crore...
    Padmavati 210 crore

    Akshay is in danger.....bechara solo release main bhi independent pe word of mouth bhi bht positive tha government ka support tha....phir bhi judwa 2 se kam kamaya...shameful...

    Akshay KB krega 150 crore cross....2. 0 se might kar le but USS film ka hero superstar rajnikanth h.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Collection kuch bhi ho film achi thi or Superhit bhi hui isse jyda kya chahiye


      2.0 ke liye Akshay kumar ne bhi bhut jyda เคซीเคธ li wo definitely 2.0 ka hissa

      2.0 ka villain h
      Or pahle se hi bollywood ka superstar

      2.0 ka credit Akshay ko bhi milega

      Delete
    2. Are pegle itna dimaag mat kharch kr pagal ho jaaega .
      Judwaa was a Masala entertainer .
      Whereas Toilet was a niche movie with just 20cr budget . And 135cr for this type of movie is than 300cr for a 200cr budget movie.
      @arsh khan tujhme yeh samajhne ki akal nahi hai. Instead u should shut ur mouth and stop commenting here.

      Delete
  7. Padman LT collection will be around 65-80 crore and
    Padmavat LT Collection will be around 180-210 crore .....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Clash hone par

    Padman definitely 100cr karegi or Superhit bhi hogi. Kyo ki padman ka word of mouth positive hi hoga.

    Clash ki wajah se padman ko 20-30 cr. Ka hi loss hoga


    Padmavat ko 2800 se 3000 screen milne par agar ab controversy na ho to 180cr.+ Ka collection kar sakti h

    Lekin phir controversy ho gayi
    Ya word of mouth negative hua to film flop hogi


    Agar padmavat solo release hoti h to 200cr.ka collection To controversy hone par bhi kar legi

    Controversy nhi hui to 250cr. Definitely solo release me


    ReplyDelete
  9. Akshay is doing what Aamir Khan did all the recent years..he is doing quality movies and good cinema...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Padmavat 120cr pad man 65cr both are flooop...

    ReplyDelete
  11. I am with my hero Akshay Kumar .
    I am sure that Padman will be a blockbuster. I am strictly against padmavat makers. So I am not going to watch padmavat.
    Padman on 25th Jan.
    Screens would be 2000-2500
    Lifetime would be 100 cr +

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When will your hero give a clear 20 cr opening and a 175+ lifetime?

      Delete
    2. @Anil Shameless idiot . When did ur so called stars gave (3 100cr grossers in a year or 4 hits in a year.)
      Bro u shamelessly insulting Akshay Sir . But u are unaware of his contribution to indian cinema and records created by him.
      Have some shame bro.

      Delete
    3. What nonsense 100 cr 3 times? No one looks at that. Today your stardom is opening and lifetime! Accept it sooner than later. ๐Ÿ˜‚ ๐Ÿ˜‚ 100 cr 3 times so? Beat Sushant and Ranbir opening and Kangana lifetime. Deshbhakt recreated word of mouth star. Brothers independence day with biggest banner johar what happened? Not even half of Salman and Ajay independence release? Stick with low budget patriotic movies that's it. Time to take me share screen space with Rajnikant and useless Hoysefull series that keeps decreasing the more sequels are made of it ๐Ÿ˜‚ ๐Ÿ˜‚

      Delete
    4. @Anil Gupta bro u are mindless person. God has not given you mind to understand things. According to you no one looks at records made by Akshay .
      Actually ever one looks at them but u don't . I think u are a idiot Akki hater. U will find his every record useless. But reality he is a big superstar .
      Anil u should consult a doctor as u are filled with negativity. Pitty on u bro.

      Delete
    5. Aap ye batao ki kis hero ki filme flop nhi hoti h. Or sab barabar ki success hasil nhi kar sakte. Chahe bollywood ho ya hollywood sab ki alag alag fan following hoti h.

      Delete
    6. @Anil gupta

      Tubelite me akshay hota....200-300crore bna leta ..or aamir 300-330

      4200 screen thi , 100 crore ka budget......etna kafi h Akshay k liye

      Delete
  12. Padmavat detroying Padman despitr ban. Overseas same story. It's an event film. Kind of a must see.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Akki ki movie 150cr kabhi cross nahi karegi .....100cr movie collection Kar Blockbuster karane Wala ek matra ...sallu movie also collect same range but flops....20cr ko opening kabhi nahi di h aur movie Blockbuster....20cr toh sallu aur Mr perfect ki movie 5th day collection Kar deti h...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Abe housefull .....oye sun akshay ki housefull 3 toh full masala tha phir bhi 110 crore kiya...or ek bat tera akshay kb krega 150 crore yaar...ab toh 50 saal ka Buddha ho gya hai Akshay Kumar....new age k hero like ranbir singh ranveer kaporr or even R.Madhavan ne 150 crore ki movie Diya h...tera Buddha Akshay KB dega...or Jo tu yeh bolta h lagataar 4 hits diye h Akshay ne...so varun dhawan ne bhi itni hits de h lagataar.......or flops bhoot gya Baby se pehle kitni di hai...yaad hai ya bhool gya...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Abe pagal kahi k @asrh khan . Housefull 3 was a normal day release. If it releases during Diwali or any other holiday , it would have collected 150cr plus.
      110cr on normal day period = 170cr on holiday period.
      And I am talking about 4 hits in single year . Only Akshay had given that . No other actor has done that.
      150cr k piche pada hua hai to pagal kahi k . Hi records Akshay ne banaye hai vo tujhe dikhte nahi.
      U are filled with negativity . So u should keep ur mouth shut idiot.

      Delete
  15. Awe ghonchu bs teri he jalti hai akki se ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
    10k followers walo ko theek jalti hai.
    Even boi is supporting padman bcs of akki...
    You always criticise akki.
    I dnt knw why?
    But one word for you: use burnol

    ReplyDelete

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