December 20, 2017

Tiger Zinda Hai Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Tiger Zinda hai is the big release of the season starring Salman Khan and Katrina Kaif. Film is about to release in 9 days time and it is perfect time to do the box office prediction of the film. TZH is a proper sequel to Ek Tha Tiger which was the biggest Hit of 2012. Expectation is colossal from the film. Plus, film is getting released in Christmas festive time. So sparks are certain to fly at box office at the time of its release.

Many in trade have huge expectation from TZH. They are mentioning it as a sure shot goldmine and film will easily zoom past 300 crores in India alone. Few super optimist are even predicting that TZH will surely challenge the might of Dangal and Baahubali 2 in India.

Tiger Zinda Hai theatrical trailer and song promos are liked by audiences. Buzz is all time high. Theater going audiences are just waiting for the film to get released. Plus, film will enjoy a big solo run for few weeks. There is simply no stopping for the film. Only issue is the content. Hope it is on positive side. 

So, without any more delay let's start the Box Office Prediction of Tiger Zinda Hai in style. Let's analysis whether film will be a Hit or Flop?

Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at whopping INR 150 crores [Production cost + P&A]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made. Salman Khan fees is not included. This makes TZH one of the expensive movies of Bollywood alongwith Padmavati and Thugs of Hindostan.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Tiger Zinda Hai Satellite rights are valued at approx INR 60-70 crores. However, this remuneration might go to Salman Khan as his fees. Yes, Salman is also having profit sharing in addition to this Satellite fees. Apart from this film should fetch another 30 crores or so from Music, Digital, Home Video and others.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers should recover around 30 crores from Music Rights, home video and others prior to release of the film. Satellite Rights are not counted as it might be Salman's fees. 

Film needs another 120 crores to be recovered from India and Overseas theatricals. Film should atleast collect 30 crore distributor share from Overseas looking at the buzz. This is bare minimum. Figures could go anywhere in Overseas looking at the pre-release buzz. Considering it as bare minimum, film then needs to recover 90 crore distributor share from India. Which mounts to INR 170-180 crore nett business in Indian to break even. Anything above that is profit. This is a big recovery, but looking at TZH buzz, this should be a cakewalk.


Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4000+ screens in India. Final screen count may even exceed 4500 screens. One thing is certain that it will be biggest Bollywood release ever.


Single Day Business Potential - TZH has potential to collect around 45-50 crore nett in a Single Day with 100% ideal occupancy. This is staggering.

First Day Collection (Friday) - TZH being releasing on Friday (normal working day). Considering this factor and Tiger franchise recall value film should collect 30+ crore nett for the day. Anything less than that will be a disappointment. Anything above 30 will be great start to the campaign.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Monday) - A 130+ crore nett in opening weekend will be a very good start at box office for TZH. Anything below 100-110 crore nett will be a disappointment considering the Holiday weekend (Christmas falls on Monday) factor.

Lifetime Business - If Tiger Zinda Hai word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 250 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should touch or even cross 300 crore nett in its lifetime and may even challenge the big records at box office. If that happens it will be simply rocking end to the year.

Prediction:

First Day (Working Friday): Expected around 30-35 crore nett.

First Weekend (Fri to Mon):

If accepted: 135-140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 110-130 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 105 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 300+ crore nett.
If mixed: 190-290 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 180 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Tiger Zinda Hai business in the region of 300 crore nett. That means it should be the Highest grossing Bollywood movie of 2017. However, if content of TZH is good to very good then there will be no stopping and it can even go beyond 300 crore nett in its lifetime business in India and challenge the likes of Dangal, PK, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan at box office. Then sky is the limit for the film and every record at box office will be in danger.

We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos, Tiger franchise, Christmas Holiday factor and Salman Khan star value. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: Blockbuster!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest Christmas biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 200, 250, 300 crore or more at box office!


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56 comments:

  1. Screen Count 4600
    1 Day 42 cr
    2 Day 40 cr
    3 Day 48 cr
    4 Day 46 cr
    First Week 245 cr
    Lifetime 400 cr

    ReplyDelete
  2. Check my responses Ankur on http://www.addatoday.com/2017/12/question-and-answer-session-no8-open-now.html?showComment=1513143677196#c4235384240007183626.

    I did a great job

    ReplyDelete
  3. Replies
    1. Bhai Saab....weekend ki spelling to sahi se likh lo..phir prediction karna....29, 32, 38, 36....135 cr in 4 days

      Delete
    2. bhai 1st day 29 se to 100% jyada hi hoga 33-39 cr pakka...

      Delete
  4. 32
    33
    36
    32
    Total -133cr (Fri-mond)
    Tue-19cr
    Wed-15cr
    Thur-13cr
    Fri-9cr
    Sat-10cr
    Sun-12cr
    Mon-8cr
    Tue-4ct
    Wed-2cr
    Remaining-15cr

    Total-240-260cr with good wom
    If rejected then 150cr..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. bhai 1st day 32cr se jyada to advance booking ho gya h....😉

      Delete
  5. Sunil tera prediction toh fail yhi ho gyaa lol😀

    ReplyDelete
  6. #tzh can getting positive wom then you will see tsunami at ticket windows 1st 4days allmost every single screen hosefull
    400+ domestic i think cakewalk

    ReplyDelete
  7. Rs mai galat huwa toh mai yhaa comment krnaa chhod dunga agar tum galat huwe same tumhre liye bhee 23 ko first day collection kaa report dekhte hai/ positive wom huwa toh saarein record gye...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Galat to tum hoge hi n dekhta hoon apni baat pe rehte ho ya nhi

      Delete
  8. Rs dar gye kya bahubali ka sequal 40 cr ar ek tha tiger kaa sequal 29 cr lol kya prediction hai tera ar tzh kaa trailer bb ar music chartbuster tabhee tumhra dimaag khulaa😂😂

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dara nhi dost...thoda busy rehta hoon..tumhari tarah itna khali nhi...n logic hona chahiye thought me..Baahubali was at a different elvel...usne 500+ cr kiya which is unprecedented....usse compare karna hi bewakoofi hai...29 cr in itself is a huge number...and the relase is on a Normal Friday dont forget...SUnday and Monday ko advantage milega but Friday would be close to 30 cr only..not more..

      Delete
  9. TZH . Story rejected hui to 200cr.
    Avg. Story 250. Cr.
    Good story 300cr.


    👍👍👍👍

    ReplyDelete
  10. No one is comparing TZH with bahubali. U know the bughet of bahubali so comparison banta hi nahin hai ne ways its all abt the box office collection if content is good it will sure pass 350 crores Dangal will be in danger . 2012 mei Dabbang 2 aayi thi December mei nad it rocked and with TZH everything depends on the content if its good to very good all records are in danger and look like it will surely hit with everyone and audience will watch it once for sure and salman fans like me atlst twice .Finger crossed 1st week collection will be easily around 200 crores and and and i am not against any other actor Aamir also one of ma fav actor but this time tzh is looking superb ab TZH dangal sa aage niklegi tabhi toh aamir aur record banayega and fir salman . So guys go and njoy the movie don fight . if u like it its gud if u dont then sorry but be fair to urself. Thank you
    Regards
    Raj

    ReplyDelete
  11. screen count 4500+
    1 22 fri 36 36 movie buzz
    2 23 sat 39 75
    3 24 sun 42 117 Super Sunday
    4 25 mon 40 157 Christmas
    5 26 tues 24 181
    6 27 wed 22 203
    7 28 thus 20 223
    8 29 fri 18 241
    9 30 sat 21 262
    10 31 sun 26 288 Last Sunday
    11 1 mon 20 308 NewYear
    12 2 tues 12 320
    13 3 wed 10 330
    14 4 thus 09 339
    15 5 fri 07 346
    16 6 sat 11 357
    17 7 sun 15 372
    18 8 mon 06 378
    19 9 tues 05 383
    20 10 wed 05 388
    21 11 thus 04 392
    ---–-------------------------
    Life time 25 417
    All time Highest grosser of the bollywood film
    and Highest grosser of the year bollywood film also.

    ReplyDelete
  12. If film is good then..Friday 40 crore..second day 42..3rd day 46..4th day 35....1st weekend (Friday to Monday)will be 160 crore and 1st week will be 220 crore....lifetimes collection 400 crore

    ReplyDelete
  13. 36+39+42=117
    4th day 40
    1st week 223
    2nd week 116
    3rd week 55
    R0D 25
    Lifetime 420

    ReplyDelete
  14. Replies
    1. ye to sirf weekend collection bataya tumne

      Delete
    2. shi kha bhai weekend bhi isse 8-10cr jyada hi hoga...

      Delete
    3. madar chod 2.5 days ka collection bata raha hai

      Delete
  15. ISS WAQT COLLECTION K CHAKKAR MEIN NA PADKAR JUST ENJOY THE TIGER'S NEVER BEFORE ACTION AT BIG SCREEN... IT IS GOING TO BE THE BEST THIS TIME...

    ReplyDelete
  16. ankur bhai...advanced booking ki updated news toh bta do...tufaan aane wala hai tiger ka

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ankit...The Advance Booking has started at numerous places... The first rounds of Advance bookings opened on Sunday at Numerous Single Screens Nationwide, and 75% of the early morning shows for Single Screens are now sold out.

      Multiplexes are expected to open the Advance Bookings on Wednesday and a very strong response is expected from them as well.

      Believe me that the film is likely to set new records for Salman Khan starrer film, provided the content of the film matches the expectations of the people.

      Delete
    2. Several Housefull Shows are already confirmed...Well Begun is already Half Done...Expect around 20 cr for Advance Bookings only which would easily translate to around 28-30 cr for a Normal Working Friday which is Huge...rest expect collections to grow throughout the weekend for around 130 cr 4 day collection till X Mas

      Delete
  17. ZINDA HAI is brilliant song with fully actions dhamaka.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Can u plzz update about the advance booking of tzh

    ReplyDelete
  19. Can u plzz update about the advance booking of tzh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rajan...Hi Ankit...The Advance Booking has started at numerous places... The first rounds of Advance bookings opened on Sunday at Numerous Single Screens Nationwide, and 75% of the early morning shows for Single Screens are now sold out.

      Multiplexes are expected to open the Advance Bookings on Wednesday and a very strong response is expected from them as well.

      Believe me that the film is likely to set new records for Salman Khan starrer film, provided the content of the film matches the expectations of the people.

      Delete
  20. Thank you so much RS
    and please keep updating us about TZH Advance booking updates and buzz please.

    ReplyDelete
  21. TZH is also among one of the longest movies andhas been cleared by Censors with a runtime of 2 hours 41 Mins for the Overseas run

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks RS for quick responses. Your answers are very professional and accurate. Apart from Ankur you have also became a highlight of this site now. I sometimes login just to see your quick responses. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  23. First day can be 42 Cr+
    Lifetime collection can be 350 Cr+
    All Time Blockbuster

    ReplyDelete
  24. 42+ is near impossible Raju on a working Friday...it has to be a National Holiday for such an opening or the Buzz has to be what it was for Baahubali...TZH would be happy with anything above 30 cr...even 28 cr would be fine with growth expected everyday till Christmas

    ReplyDelete
  25. DON'T FORGET DEAR IT'S SALMAM KHAN WHO IS A BAHUBALI OF BOLLYWOOD AND THIS TIME IT'S ACTION PACKED MOVIE WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SHOWN BEFORE IN ANY BOLLYWOOD MOVIE
    JUST WAIT DEAR ANYTHING CAN POSSIBLE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 35 crore se upar h...yeh toh pakka h,,,

      Delete
    2. 35 crore se upar h...yeh toh pakka h,,,

      Delete
  26. If all goes well I am Hoping for 35 Crores dont know wether it will happen or not but finger crossed atleast 45 crores what i am expecting. Rest everything will be clear on friday morning and after advance booking updates

    ReplyDelete
  27. koi update karo bhai screen count and advance booking report

    ReplyDelete
  28. Rs kon hai chutiya 80-90 percent opening lgngi sab trade bol rahe hai ar issmein 30 cr btaa rhaa khaa se calculation lata hai ye ulllu 38-40 cr confirm ar rs advance dekh le yr hosh ud jynge tere lol ab maat comment kariyo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gaali bakne se tumhari family aur tumhara standard pata chalta hai...but mai naali ke keede jaise neeche aur ganda nhi jaunga...2 din me collection aa jayegi..phir khud ko gaali bakna....Thanks Prashant and Dear Admin Anur...please take note of the worthy language being used...

      Delete
    2. Chalo bhai Prashant SIngh....33.75 cr aaya....ab dobara answer mat dena....as was promised....else tumhari sharam aur tumhari marzi....shart to haar gaye 35+ cr waali tum....aage se Normal Friday or Holiday ka fark samajh jaoge...n doosron ki opinion k liye gaali bakna band karo...good bye...n hard luck for loosing the 35 cr bet...

      Delete
  29. Bahubali2 75% opening lee thee non holiday thaa 40 cr ar ye 80-90 % tzh lengi 30 cr btaa rhaa hai ek dum ullu hai ye #rs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gaali bakne se ghar pariwaar aur insaan ka standard pata chalta hai...aap yoga kijiye..ya aaina dekh kar gaali bakiye...shaanti milegi...2 din me collections aayegi phir naachiyega Swag se Swagat baja ke....but 35 cr ka prediction impossible hai...

      Delete
  30. #tzh abtk kaa sabse jaada screen pe release hone ka hai #rs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Normal Friday ka matlab shaayad aap samajh hi nhi paa rahe..koi nhi...aapko pata chalega...Weekend pe growth hoti hai...Highest collections Sunday n Monday ko aayenge...not on Friday...

      Delete
    2. Chalo bhai Prashant SIngh....33.75 cr aaya....ab dobara answer mat dena....as was promised....else tumhari sharam aur tumhari marzi....shart to haar gaye 35+ cr waali tum....aage se Normal Friday or Holiday ka fark samajh jaoge...n doosron ki opinion k liye gaali bakna band karo...good bye...n hard luck for loosing the 35 cr bet...

      Delete
  31. The first review of TIGER ZINDA HAI in UAE
    https://twitter.com/Nilzrav/status/943736149528465413

    ReplyDelete
  32. Just Finished the FIRST SHOW! #TigerZindaHai first Review from Dubai( UAE )
    reviews by Neelam Joshi from UAE

    Just Finished the FIRST SHOW! #TigerZindaHai Review COMING UP in 5mins. Dil THAAM KE baithna. Mujhe toh already BUKHAAR AA GAYA hearing Tiger's ROAR😨


    TigerZindaHai Review in UAE: THE MOST THRILLING - EDGE OF THE SEAT Experience EVER! #NoKidding. Salman Khan & YRF Team have done a STUPENDEOUS job of giving the MOST PERFECT end to the year for Bollywood. It couldn't get better than this! Bole toh BAAP movie in all aspects🔥🔥🐯🐯 #TZH

    Salman's eyes ll PIERCE ur senses & so ll his acting! The age old saying: He is like old wine, gets BETTER & BETTER with age. Fierce ATTITUDE, Killer CONFIDENCE & gutsy ACTION🔥 Warning:Be sure that your Heart doesnt POP OUT when he shows up bare-bodied towards the climax😍 #TZH

    Zoya SIRF Tiger ki WIFE nahi hai. She is the POWER WOMAN! Surprisingly, she is the one to get his man out of trouble most of the times😉 Katrina's STRONGEST performance so far👌👌 Those who say girls have nothing to do in Salman's films, can now SHUT their mouths🖕#TigerZindaHai

    The BEST part about #TigerZindaHai is that it not only concentrate on the main story line but also has many sub-plots within the screeplay which gives you ample to LOVE & APPRECIATE! It's the team's BRILLIANCE, not a ONE MAN SHOW as mostly said abt Salman's movies☺☺ #TZH
    Background Music deserves all the praises it can! GOOSEBUMPS guaranteed throughout bcoz of it! ACTION sequences are Faadu, though has visible use of VFX. THRILL moments - Aisa lagta hai ke bhai sach mein screen se baahar aakar theatre BOMB se na uda de😂 #TigerZindaHai

    The fact that there was so much to see & treat your senses to was the real HAPPINESS factor for me. In all honesty, didn't expect so much from #TigerZindaHai even till yesterday. But wohi MAGIC hai movie ka. Story, Supporting Cast, Sequence of Events👌 #TZH

    Negatives: 1) Zoya ji har baar sahi time par ponch jaati hai🤔 2) Itne saare ISC ke soldiers, par phir bhi can't fight a tiny team🤔 3) Abu Usman(Villian) is always like jo hona hai hone do🤔 4) Climax scene - Tiger shoots arnd 100 ISC members with guns all ALONE😑 #TigerZindaHai

    In short, #TigerZindaHai ll create genuine DHAMAKA at the Box Office🔥 This movie is for EVERYONE. A genre of it's own & not comparable to past SK movies. Cheers to Dir @aliabbaszafar's vision. Thanks for an HONEST film with all the right BW MASALA👌👌 My RATING: 4/5🐯🐯🐯🐯 #TZH

    #TigerZindaHai Review: P.S & Disclaimer -> Jo dekha hai wahi likha hai😉😉 AAM JANTA ROCKS!! If there are any haters, they can go & face the Tiger to shit in their pants😆😜 #TZH @BeingSalmanKhan @yrf @aliabbaszafar

    Hi ALL Salman fans! Thanks for ur LOVE. Tiny favor😜- Koi Besharam/Halkat mere tweets ko copy kare toh plz batana. If you come across any tweets of mine on somebody else's TL, plz do tag me for Tiger's sake😎😉 Bye! HAPPY NEW YEAR 2018😃❤ Off to EUROPE😉 #TigerZindaHai Review


    ReplyDelete
  33. #TigerZindaHai

    Cost of Production - INR 130.00 Cr.
    Prints & Advertising - INR 20.00 Cr.
    Total Budget - INR 150.00 Cr.

    India Screen Count - 4600.
    International Screen Count - 1100.
    Worldwide Screen Count - 5700.

    @BeingSalmanKhan #KatrinaKaif @aliabbaszafar @yrf @TigerZindaHai

    ReplyDelete

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