Raees Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Raees is the first major release of the year alongside Kaabil this Wednesday (25th January, 2017). Film stars Shah Rukh Khan in lead role and hence, Raees is expected to start big at box office from word go. Film will enjoy 5 day extended weekend with National Holiday falling on Thursday. However film will have clash with Kaabil and hence, screens will be divided and reduced.

Without any more delay let's start the Box Office Prediction of Raees. Let's understand whether it has potential to be a Hit or Flop?

Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 90-95 crore [Production cost: 70 crores. P&A included. SRK fees not included]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Shah Rukh Khan had a satellite rights deal with Sony TV. Raees is part of that TV right. Recovery from Satellite rights of Raees is approx 55 crores. This is a big recovery, however there might be some box office performance deal also. Hence, minimum guarantee should be around 40-45 crores. Even, that is a major recovery. Also, recovery from Music and other rights should be easily 10-15 crores. Total non-theatrical recovery is approx 50-60 crores [bare minimum]. We take median value as 55 crores.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Raees has already recovered around 55 crores [median value] from non-theatrical recovery. Film just needs to recover another 35-40 crores from India and Overseas theatrical to break even. Anything above it will be profits. This is looking quite simple and film should easily recover it in first few days itself.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2500 screens or round about. Screens are bit less for a SRK starrer film, but still enough considering the extended weekend to 'Rock' box office. 

Single Day Business Potential - As Raees set to release in nearly 2500 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 25-26 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Wednesday) - Raees is releasing on normal Wednesday. However film will pick up big from Evening onward as Thursday is National Holiday. So, if film starts with an opening of 14-15 crore or more it will be a great start. Anything above 15 crores is outstanding stuff, considering National Holiday still to come. Film will strike big on 26th January as it is Holiday all across India.

First Weekend Collection (Wednesday-Sunday) - Raees should collect around 80-90 crore nett in opening extended weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 100 crore nett mark if film is accepted big by the audiences.

Lifetime Business - If Raees word of mouth is even decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 150 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 175 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 200 crores.

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 15 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 85-90+ crore nett.

If mixed: 71-80 crore nett.

If rejected: less then 65 crore nett.

Lifetime: 

If accepted: 175+ crore nett.

If mixed: 120-165 crore nett.

If rejected: Less than 110 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Raees business anywhere between 130-150 crore nett. That means Raees should be the 1st Hit of 2017. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of going past 150 crore and challenging 175-200 crore nett mark. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, reduced screen count, trailer response, song promos and Shah Rukh Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: Hit

Do let us know your prediction for this Republic Day Weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150 or 200 crore or more at box office!

Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2017!

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