October 28, 2015

Trade Expectation on PRDP, Tamasha, Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani

This is that part of year when only about four biggies are left to end the year in style. Yes, there are more movies to be released in 2015, but majority eyes are now on Prem Ratan Dhan Payo, Tamasha, Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani. So, what is the trade (trade analyst, distributor and exhibitor) expectations from the above mentioned films? No doubt PRDP and Dilwale will definitely challenge Bajrangi Bhaijaan for highest grosser of the year title, but honestly it will be extremely tough to repeat that feat. And whether Tamasha or Bajirao Mastani will spring some surprise. Let's see what our trade says on these films.

1. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo - PRDP is a big Diwali solo release. Film will have two open weeks run till Tamasha. Many single screens are set to book theaters even after two weeks. This is big. PRDP has all gimmicks to be a big hit at box office. Salman Khan and Sooraj Bajratya combination back after long time. Music is catching up. Promos says film is looking grand. Festive release. Even reports from Censor Board is also positive.

Trade Expect - 275 crore nett*

2. Tamasha - There was big expectation from Tamasha before the first promos are released. It is Imtiaz Ali film. It stars Ranbir Kapoor and Deepika Padukone in lead roles. However film theatrical trailer response is mixed. Plus, song are not getting into chartbuster mode. Plus, film might get affected by PRDP factor although later will be into 3rd week, still that will be a factor. Drishyam was affected by Bajrangi Bhaijaan and if PRDP get similar response then history may repeat itself.

Trade Expect - 100-115 crore nett*

3. Dilwale - Dilwale is a big Christmas and New Year release. Although film is a Pre-Christmas release it is certain to take tsunamic start at box office. Plus, there is Shah Rukh Khan and Rohit Shetty combination who has earlier given Chennai Express. So, expectation is humongous. Only issue is film will clash with another biggie of the year in Bajirao Mastani. Hence, business will definitely be affected by the later.

Trade Expect - 225-250 crore nett**

4. Bajirao Mastani - Sanjay Leela Bhansali Magnum Opus will be the last biggest release of the year alongwith Dilwale. Film is riding on huge budget. From the theatrical promo film looks like made on lavish set and is already looking grand. Film will get benefit of Christmas and New Year Holidays. But alongside that there will be big clash with Dilwale which will definitely have a affect its overall business.

Trade Expect - 125 crore nett**

* Estimation are made on whatever the rushes and promos seen by the trade. Plus actual number will also depend on the content of the film. Figures will go higher or lower than the estimation depending how film is taken on by the audiences. Here content is considered as decent to positive. For e.g, if PRDP content is excellent than lifetime figure may be higher than the above mentioned.

** All points mentioned above (*). Plus, If film avert clashes than numbers may go higher than estimated. But as if now looking like big clash is set to happen.

Do, give us your thought on the lifetime box office collection of the above mentioned four biggies of the year.

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  1. Tamasha can earn close to 150 crore if its content is liked, ranbir has a huge fan following in metro cities which will help. But the content has to be good

    1. Tamasha will earn max 40 crore. Mark my word.

  2. Boxoffice Prediction

    PRDP - 410 cr
    tamasha -60 cr
    Dilwale-120 cr
    Bajirao Mastani -150 cr

  3. PRDP trailler n songs are boaring don't think youth watch it plus it is distributed by panoti company Fox 250cr out of reach, BM won't cross 100cr with out Good wom which is impossible to pridict even if Dilwale wom is good like pk/bb interms of entertainment then 300cr possible. My Pridiction to decent to Good wom
    PRDP 175-230cr
    Tamasha 85-110cr
    Bajirao Mastani 60-90cr
    Dilwale 235-345cr

    1. In my view Bajirao will do better than Dilwale. Both in the range of 150 cr. Tamsha max 40 crore and PRDP min 290 crore.

    2. mr ahwar what is the base of your view?? some data to support your view or its something like you wish it to happen??

  4. dilwale will crush all records...................cant wait 11 nov trailer...............srk shetti combo after records breaking ce ................srk kajol magical jodi....superb

  5. abhi tak n trailer aaya hai aur n hi song...phir bhi dilwale ka buzzzzz better than pk,bb,bm,tamasha etc..............abki baar 1000 cr paar.............cant wait more now..................eagerly waiting fan dilwale raees............atbb coming on card..............

  6. My Predictions:
    PRDP = 300+
    Tamasha = Below 80
    Dilwale = 200+ (250+ if Clash averted)
    BM = Below 100 (120+ if Clash Averted)

  7. PRDP - 280 Cr
    Dilwale - 240 Cr
    Bajirao Mastani - 100 Cr
    Tamasha - 80 Cr

  8. Trade always expecting more for a salman starrer...but this time PRDP could not cross 150 crore....and for dilwale it will be highest grosser of the year...
    so please stop making nonsence about PRDP...
    will be a Disaster

    1. U wish. PRDP in worst scenario will do better than Dilwale in best scenario. Trust me!

  9. There is nothing that can stop prdp frm being a huge grosser! .. simple example is if a strictly ok film of farah with another huge star can earn 200 crs on diwali, a salman film with suraj barjatiya even if not gr8 wld surely be better than farah khan's movie n so minimum 250 cr guaranteed! If received well wld challenge bajrangi!! Dilwale again surely wld earn huge coz of srk n rohit n best holiday period but coz of the clash wld earn less than prdp !! Bajirao wld earn anywhere around 100 cr. If is accepted! Tamasha potentially can earn 150 but average songs n trailer n ranbir's poor form may hold it back.. if prdp is received well tamasha wld find it difficult to get more than 100 crs!

  10. I think prdp cross 350cr mark and dilwale would be 250cr,Bm 130cr and tamasha 90cr

  11. Dilwale flop
    Tamasa super hit
    Prdp hit
    Bm hit

  12. Dilwale will crush many records

  13. PRDP - 240CR

  14. Wait n watch my prediction for all those are
    PRDP-below 250
    BM-below 150
    And at last my I wanna tell all of u that my predictions about collections rarely goes wrong. My latest prediction was pyaar ka punchnama 2 would collect a good chunk of money n it was true .Just previously I also predicted that Bajrangi Bhaijaan would creat history but definitely could not break the record of pk n it was .

  15. Dilwale will not touch 200 , PRDP around 270, Tamasha 150 and Bajirao around 140

  16. Dilwale kisi bi angle se 250 crore touch ni kr skti .....guaranteed....and dnt underestimate bajirao mastani ....it will be a nice film....and for salman bhai ...agr uski medicore movies hi 200 crore earn kr skti h to....i m sure 250 or may be more thn that it can earn from prdp......wishing best wishes to salman



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