December 14, 2013

Dhoom 3 Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop.

"Bande Hain Hum Uske, Hum Pe Kiska Zor, Ummedon Ke Suraj, Nikle Charon Aur... Irade Hain Fauladi, Himati Har Kadam, Apne Haathon Kismat Likhne, Aaj Chale Hain Hum.." One of the 'Biggest Film of The Year 2013' is Dhoom 3 and it comes right at the end of the year. Film is about to release in 10 days time from now on, that is 20th December. So, will this year end with a Dhoom or Doom? Will Dhoom3 will able to ride its 'Kismat' (Luck) at the Box Office? Will it be the Biggest Grosser of All Time?

Dhoom 3 stars Aamir Khan, Abhishek Bachchan, Katrina Kaif and Uday Chopra in lead roles. Aamir Khan is coming after a long year wait after 'Talaash' his last release in 2012. Katrina Kaif is also having her only release of 2013 in lead role. She is also a big draw at box office and no one can deny that. Plus it is directly from Dhoom franchise, which is right now one of the biggest. Plus film is from YRF production. Plus film will get Christmas Holiday benefit in First Week itself. Plus there is also Abhishek and Uday Jodi to entertain the die-hard Dhoom audiences. With such astronomical buzz and expectation specially in trade and among people, will film be able to match its enormous pre-release expectation at box office. Why not? Let's start the 'box office prediction of Dhoom 3' with elan!

Note - There is huge amount of risk predicting the box office result of such huge scale film. But have to do it as it is our job! So, readers will take it as our personal prediction. Rest all depends on Film Content, Audiences and many other post-release factors. These are just predictions and actuals are bound to vary.
Potential of Dhoom 3 - Dhoom 3 is expected to release in 4000 or more screens in India. That means film has capacity to collect 40 crore nett in a Single Day itself. Realistically film should touch 100 crore nett in Opening Weekend itself or at most 4 days flat.

Film Budget - Official Confirmation is awaited, but approx Budget of Dhoom 3 should be around INR 110-125 crore (Film Cost - Approx 90-100 crore. P&A - 20-25 crore).

Amount Recovered Pre-Release - There is news out in Electronic and Print Media that Satellite Rights of Dhoom 3 is Sold for INR 75 crore. That seems exaggerated figure. Realistically it should be in the range of INR 50-60 crore. Amount recovered from Music, Home Video and other rights should be another INR 8-10 crore. So overall non-theatrical revenue recovery is in the range of INR 58-70 crore. To make equation simpler lets take a median value of around INR 65 crore (say).
Box Office Prediction for Dhoom 3 -

Opening Day - As per estimation, Dhoom 3 is having a wide release in around 4000 screens all India (All Language). Film should take Historic Opening on Friday despite being a Normal Working Day. Film should easily collect 25-30 crore nett on First Day. It may collect even higher, but being a normal day anything above 25 crore nett will be a good start.

Opening Weekend (Friday - Sunday) -

If Accepted - 80-90+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 55 -79 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 54 crore nett.

First Week (7 Days) -

If Accepted - 140+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 110-139 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 99 crore nett.

Lifetime Box Office Collection -

If Accepted - 190-200+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 140-180 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 130 crore nett.

Theatrical Verdict of Dhoom 3 -

Blockbuster - 185-190+ crore nett.
Super Hit - 150-184 crore nett.
Hit - 130-149 crore nett.
Average - 100-129 crore nett.
Flop - Below 99 crore nett.
Disaster - Below - 85 crore nett.

Final Prediction - We think Dhoom 3 should collect somewhere in the range of 210-230 crore nett mark. That means it will be emerge as clear Blockbuster at the box office. Film will have a photo-finish to be the biggest grosser of the year 2013. If content is good to excellent, then sky is the limit for the film and God knows where collection will end. This year is definitely going to end with a Dhoom!

Tell us your thought on Dhoom 3 business prospect.

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