January 22, 2013

Race 2 Box Office Predictions. Hit or Flop.

Race 2 is the second most major release of 2013 after Matru Ki Bijlee Ka Mandola. It stars Saif Ali Khan, John Abraham, Anil Kapoor, Deepika Padukone in lead role. It is a sequel to super hit film Race and is directed by Abbas-Mustan. Film is expected to be a racy thriller in typical Abbas-Mustan style of direction and expection is huge considering it is from a successful franchise and large ensemble of star cast. So, let's start the box office prediction of Race 2.
Economics of Race 2 -

Budget - As per our estimates budget of Race 2 should be around 55 crore (40 Production Cost + 15 for PA & Marketing). Wikipedia has mentioned budget of Race 2 around 87 crore and we don't know from where they have received those data. Once we receive the actual cost from makers will update accordingly.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release. Race 2 Satellite Rights price is still not officially known to us. Even Music and home video rights are not known to us. But going by the star cast and Race brand it should easily recover around 30+ crore (Satellite Rights 20-25 crore, Others 7-10 crore).

Amount need to be recovered for earning profit. Around 25 crore distributor share from India and Overseas and after that profits will be counted. This amount can be achieved in the first week itself if film gets good run.

Potential of Race 2. With around 2700 screens all India, it is the biggest release of 2013. If Race 2 gets ideally 100% occupancy it should get around 27 crore nett all India mark. But, realistically its should get an occupancy of 80-90% at max in Holidays (which is very high for such wide release film), which will take its Single Day potential to 22-23 crore nett all India mark. Since, it is releasing on normal day occupancy of 50-60% will be damn good.

Opening Day Prediction. 14-15 cr nett (Saturday being National Holiday because of Republic Day, expect jump in Friday Evening and Night Shows).
Opening Weekend (3 Day) Prediction.

If Accepted - 45+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 35-45 crore nett.
If Rejected - <30 crore nett.

Opening Week (7 Day) Prediction.

If Accepted - 70+ crore nett.
If Average -  55-65 crore nett.
If Rejected - <50 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection Prediction.

If Accepted - 100-110+ crore nett.
If Average -  80-95 crore nett.
If Rejected - <75 crore nett.

Theatrical Verdict for Race 2. We can easily assume that Race 2 should collect around 10-12 crore distributor share from Overseas since it getting released in huge 50 countries. Hence, for Theatrical Hit it needs another 43-45 crore distributor share from India (Assuming Budget of Race 2 around 55 crore at the moment). For this Race 2 needs a Lifetime collection of 85 crore nett or more for being a Theatrical Hit.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Race 2 for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 200 cr nett+.
Blockbuster - 135-190 cr nett.
Super HIT - 115-135 cr nett.
HIT - 90-110 cr nett.  
Average - 75-90 cr nett.
Flop - Below 70 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 55 cr nett.


AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - Race 2 should collect around 90-100 cr nett in Lifetime. That means a Distributor Share of 45-50 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 12 crore. Total theatrical earnings 57-62 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical (Median) + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 60 + 30-35 = 90-95 crores (Median around 92 crore).

AddaToday Final Verdict on Race 2.
Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost = 92 - 60 = Rs 32 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) - Hit (90-100 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on Race 2 business prospect.

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