August 11, 2017

Toilet: Ek Prem Katha Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Toilet: Ek Prem Katha starring Akshay Kumar and Bhumi Pednekar is the big release happening this coming Friday. Film buzz is good as it is made on the topic of Swach Bharat Mission and is expected to open big at ticket counters. Akshay is on peak of his career right now. He has delivered a Hit with Jolly LLB 2 earlier this year and trade is expecting that he will repeat that success with Toilet again. So, whether TEPK will be a HIT or Flop? To know that let's do the box office prediction of the movie.


Economics - 

Budget - As stated by Akshay Kumar himself, budget of TEPK is INR 18 crores (excluding P&A). Total landing cost (including P&A) will be approx INR 35 crores.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - India distribution rights are rumoured to be sold for INR 52 crores. But latest news is producer and co-producer of the film TEPK has decided to release the film on its own now. This is perhaps a very good news, considering TEPK budget is extremely controlled and film is looking good. Makers should recover around INR 20 crores from Satellite Rights. Another INR 5-7 crores from Music, Home Video and others. A total of 25-27 crores should be recovered as Non-theatrical revenue.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Just around 8-10 crores needed to be recovered from India and Overseas theatrical for the makers to break even. It will easily be recovered by the film inside first 2 days. After that all will be profits. 

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 3000-3200 screens in India. This is more than enough to put big box office number in a single day.

Single Day Business Potential - As TEPK is getting one of the biggest release of the year and it has potential to collect over 30+ crore nett in a Single Day with 100% ideal occupancy.



First Day Collection (Friday) - TEPK being releasing on a normal Friday, anything close to 13-15 crore nett will be a superb start at box office. Film stars Akshay Kumar and we are hoping that it takes a double digit start.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - A 45 crore nett in opening weekend will be a very good start at box office for TEPK. 

Lifetime Business - If TEPK word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 110-120 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 130 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 150 crores or more. That will be fantastic.

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 13 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 50+ crore nett.
If mixed: 36-49 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 35 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 135-140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 85-125 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 75 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting TEPK business in the region of 125 crore nett. If content is good to very good then film has a good chance of touching 140 or even 150 crore nett mark. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos and Akshay Kumar star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: HIT/Super HIT!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest Independence Day Weekend release! What do you think whether film will collect 75, 100, 125 or 150 crore or more at box office!


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22 comments:

  1. what about tex free effect? So far only in UP it's tax free,but can be in few more states .

    If mixed: 120 like rustom

    If positve : 140+

    ReplyDelete
  2. If budget is 18 cr where is Akshay market value... Addatoday you don't know about budget...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He is co-producer and share holder in profit...

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    2. Bhai budget 40cr, h usme v bina akshay sir ke fees ka

      Delete
  3. Budget 18 crore h isme Akshay kumar amount add nhi h 18cr.budget+17cr.promotio = 35cr. Cost
    Akshay kumar shayad amount me se presentage% base par h

    ReplyDelete
  4. Tepk ke liye 3000-3200 screen Bhut h
    Bas story achi honi chahiye phir to Akshay kumar first time 150 crore kar sakte

    ReplyDelete
  5. 5 days weekend solo release definitely 150 crores on card...

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  6. Toilet ek prem katha ke liye ab tak sab positive dikh raha h
    Good screen count
    Very good promotion
    Good response of trailer
    Music is good

    Akshay kumar bhi best form me h
    Logo ko bhi film se achi ummid h
    JHMS ka nahi chalna bhi TEPK ke liye positive h

    Bas TEPK ke liye ek hi negative point h ki movie {2:30} (two hour thirty minutes) ka time jyda h isliye screen play past hona chahiye

    ReplyDelete
  7. Going to be first bollywood blockbuster of 2017. 100 crore to pakka h Bhai.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Toilet movie ka intjar h
    Bas jald release ho jaye

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  9. akki next first 200 cr movie...
    boss of Bollywood

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  10. Blockbuster
    Shahrukh se purana hisab chuka lega Akshay

    ReplyDelete
  11. Revenge hogi achchhi taraha se pura hisaab milaake is bar

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  12. Advance booking is also good

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  13. movie willbe superhit akki will rock

    ReplyDelete