August 4, 2017

Jab Harry Met Sejal Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop.

Shah Rukh Khan has highest grosser of the year in 'Raees' as 7 months of the year is passed. He is again back with Jab Harry Met Sejal also starring Anushka Sharma. Means, so far he is competing with himself at box office, as far as this year is concerned. JHMS is set to take big opening at box office and is expected to zoom past 100 crore nett mark in first few days itself. Buzz of the film is very good, however not upto the level of few earlier films of SRK. Still, buzz is much better right now closer to release date as to what it was one month back. Theatrical Trailer has definitely helped to raise the buzz few notch. So, let's start the box office prediction of Jab Harry Met Sejal and check whether film will be a HIT of FLOP?


Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 85-90 crores [Production cost + P&A]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Worldwide Distribution Rights of JHMS is acquired by NH Studioz for whopping INR 125 crores. In addition to that Sony brought the music rights of the film for a whopping 15 crores. There is no official update on Satellite Rights, but it should be around 40-45 crore approx for JHMS with box office performance clause added and it can increase further.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers have already recovered the investment from non-theatrical revenues such as Worldwide Theatrical Rights, Satellite Rights, Music Rights. Plus a profit of approx 90-95 crores are made already in table. Then there is profit sharing with NH Studioz for worldwide market if film exceeds box office expectations. It is all about NH Studioz recovery now. If JHMS recovers 125 crore+ distributor share from India and Overseas, they will be in safe zone.

Shah Rukh Khan being a big brand in Overseas and let's put that if film recovers around 40-45 crores from Overseas, then film will need to recover around 80-85 crores from India theatricals. Means film will need to collect around 160-165 crore nett in India to break even. Anything above that will be profits for distributors.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 3700-3800 screens in India. This is more than enough to put big box office number in a single day.

Single Day Business Potential - As JHMS is getting one of the biggest release of the year and it has potential to collect over 38-40 crore nett in a Single Day with 100% ideal occupancy.



First Day Collection (Friday) - JHMS being releasing on a normal Friday, anything close to 18-20 crore nett will be a superb start at box office. However, it being a Shah Rukh Khan film, don't be surprised if it goes beyond 20 crore nett in opening day.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - A 65-70 crore nett in opening weekend will be a very good start at box office for JHMS. Film needs to do as much possible business in first week, as Toilet: Ek Prem Katha is releasing on 11th August, which will definitely have an impact.

Lifetime Business - If JHMS word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 150 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 175 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 200 crores or more. That will be fantastic.

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 20 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 70+ crore nett.
If mixed: 55-70 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 50 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 175+ crore nett.
If mixed: 120-170 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 110 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting JHMS business anywhere between 140-150 crore nett. That means it should be the Highest grossing Bollywood movie of 2017. Film will be bit affected by TEPK from second week onward. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of going past 175 crore and challenging 200 crore nett mark. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos and Shah Rukh Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: HIT!

Do let us know your prediction for this latest SRK release! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150, 200 crore or more at box office!


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23 comments:

  1. Ye to bhai super flop hogi kuch hai hi nhi Trailer me or na hi song acche

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  2. Aaj yakeen how gaya You do not make prediction by looking at movie but u look only at star. This movie had average songs and hardly good trailer. I do not find it crossing business of rates. The one factor which keeps Amir and Salman way ahead of sharukh is Script.

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  3. lol 120-170 at mix? really?? raaes had mixed to positive WOM and finished at 130..even fan wasn't compltly disliked movie it did only 85....

    If mixed : 110-130
    If positive : 140-160
    Thats it

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  4. Mixed:90-110
    Positive:120-140
    Negative:70-90 crs
    Most poor srk movie after years in terms of pre release buzz.

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  5. This movie will supper hit 180cr plus ..

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  6. Advance booking are rock every where


    1st day collection will 30cr plus

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  7. This srk starrer might not touch 100cr

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  8. Maximum 120 if good, if mixed 110, if bad 99-100

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  9. Advance booking looks good as it has opened in limited theatres.for example only one screen in Chennai. Same old cheap tactics of Red Chillies

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  10. How is advance booking report?

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  11. On what basis , you are predicting every SRk film as 150+ ,but reality is he has only one film in 150Cr+

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  12. Movie will cross 175cr plus supperhit

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  13. Will cross 175cr InshaAllah may b touch 200cr

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    Replies
    1. Not possible
      It is going to declare flop

      Delete
    2. Not possible
      It is going to declare flop

      Delete
  14. 175cr sure maybe more than that..what a movie alr i watch now this night show i go and watch again

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  15. Flop bakwas story. Sharukh anuska ke. Sath. Acha nhi lag raha h

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  16. Jhms. Jitne Screen par release. Hui. H. Utne screen. Par toilet ek prem katha. Release. Ho tab h asli compitition.

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  17. I didn't seen yet but hoping it's good movie

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