July 13, 2017

Jagga Jasoos Box Office Prediction. HIT or Flop?

Predicting business of Jagga Jasoos is going to be immense tough for us. Simple reason is there are varied figures floating among trade itself. Some expert is saying it will go as high as 150 crore or more. Whereas others saying it is destined to be doomed with below 80-90 crore mark. 




Hmm.. yes it will be our toughest prediction till date. Lets' start the box office prediction for Jagga Jasoos starring Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif. Will it be a HIT or Flop at box office.

Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 100-110 crores [Production cost + P&A]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Satellite Rights, Music Rights, others should add upto around INR 40-45 crores. 

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers have recovered reasonable amount from non-theatrical revenues. It need another approx INR 60-65 crores from India and Overseas theatrical. Amount is big, but possible with good business.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a wide release of 3500 screens.

Single Day Business Potential - Single day potential with 100% ideal occupancy is approx 35 crores.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Jagga Jasoos is having a normal Friday release. So, anything above 13-15 crore nett will be a superb start at box office. However, anything less than that will be a worry as film is riding on big budget.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Need to cross 50 crore nett in opening weekend. Anything less than 45 crore nett will be a big of worry. 

Lifetime Business - If Jagga Jasoos word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 125 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime. That will be fantastic!



Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 12-13 crore nett.

First Weekend (Pre-Eid):

If accepted: 55+ crore nett.
If mixed: 40-50 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 35 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 80-135 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 75 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Jagga Jagoos business anywhere between 110-120 crore nett. That means Jagga Jasoos should break even for distributors at most. Ideally we want film to score as much as possible and much more than our prediction at least. But after all permutation and combination we have finally locked that figure. 

Verdict: Above Average or Semi Hit!

Do let us know your prediction for the film! What do you think whether film will collect 75. 100, 125, 150 crore or more at box office!


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