June 23, 2017

Tubelight Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

There are films, there are big films and finally there are Salman Khan Films. Without any doubt we can state a Salman Khan film is always an Event film, more so when it is released in festive time of EID. Salman films are enjoyed by one and all, specially by his die-hard fans. His films are critic proof! However, in recent years, not only Salman delivered some classics, but also set box office records which are benchmark to others. So, what's store for all this EID then?


This time deadly combination of Salman Khan and Kabir Khan are back together with Tubelight. Film buzz is all time high and trade is highly confident that it will be a Runway Hit at box office. Many in trade as expected are touting it as next 300 crore film. Even some are saying it might be the answer to last year hurricane Dangal. Such is the colossal expectation from the film. 

So, without any more delay let's start the Box Office Prediction of Tubelight and see whether it will be a Hit or Flop?

Economics - 

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 115-120 crores [Production cost: 100 crores + P&A]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Theatrical Rights (Minus C.I) of Tubelight is acquired by NH Studioz for whopping INR 132 crores. In addition to that Sony brought the music rights for whopping INR 20 crores. As per Salman Khan deal with Star network, Tubelight Satellite Rights will be approx INR 55-60 crores. Means total recovery is approx INR 200+ crores even before film is released. Makers are into big profit already.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers have already recovered the investment from non-theatrical revenues such as India Theatrical Rights, Satellite Rights, Music Rights. Plus a profit of approx 90 crores are made already in table. Then there is profit sharing with NH Studioz and profits from Overseas market. It is all about NH Studioz recovery now. If Tubelight crosses 250-260 crore nett in India then NH Studioz will be in safe zone.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4500 screens or bit more than that. It is expected to be the widest release ever in India.

Single Day Business Potential - As Tubelight is getting widest release ever it has all potential to collect over 40 crore nett in a Single Day. With 100% occupancy potential is to go above 45 crore nett mark.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Tubelight is having a normal Friday release and that also in the period of Ramadan. So, anything above 20-25 crore nett will be a superb start at box office. However, it being a Salman film, don't be surprised if it challenges 30 crore nett in opening day or even more.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - EID is falling on Tuesday and hence, it will be a normal pre-EID period for opening weekend. Hence, if Tubelight crosses 90 crore nett in first weekend it will be a big achievement in itself, even with Salman star factor.

Lifetime Business - If Tubelight word of mouth is decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 250 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 300 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 325 crores or more. This is colossal.

Prediction:

First Day (Pre-Eid): Expected around 25-30 crore nett.

First Weekend (Pre-Eid):

If accepted: 95-100+ crore nett.
If mixed: 80-90 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 75 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 275-300+ crore nett.
If mixed: 175-270 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 150 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Tubelight business anywhere between 300-325 crore nett. That means Tubelight should be the Highest grossing Bollywood movie of 2017. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of going past 325 crore and challenging 350 crore nett mark. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, screen count, trailer response, song promos and Salman Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: Blockbuster!

Do let us know your prediction for this EID biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400 crore or more at box office!


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29 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Your prediction 1000000000% wrong that's 300 like a हलुआ so think big get big

      Delete
  2. I think Break the record of bahubali 2 Hindi language that means 550 cr narmaly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No it won't and it can't
      Tube light is not an original film
      It's a copied version of a Hollywood film and his character in the movie may not attract multiplex audiences later after the release
      And secondly BAHUBALI 2 WAS AN ORIGINAL FILM AND THE SCALE OF WHICH IS HUNDRED TIMES MORE THAN THAT OF TUBELIGHT.
      IT SHOWS IN THE COLLECTION
      MARK MY WORDS
      TUBELIGHT WILL BE A HIT BUT NOT AS HUGE AS BB OR SULTAN.

      Delete
    2. What js this scale rubbish bro... I dnt see scale any movie that were huge hits this century... Be it... 3 idiots... Pk... Bb.. Sultan.. Dangal.. Or gadar��

      Delete
  3. In shah Allah 400 cr......thiz time.....

    ReplyDelete
  4. In shah Allah 400 cr......thiz time.....

    ReplyDelete
  5. In shah Allah 400 cr......thiz time.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 400 is diff; 300-325 looks achievable

      Delete
    2. 400 is diff; 300-325 looks achievable

      Delete
    3. 400 is diff; 300-325 looks achievable

      Delete
  6. 10000 cr admin ..salee ...ghandu/.....bcc ...acchi perediction kar

    ReplyDelete
  7. Being a sallu fan i call out for 1000+cr business but looking at the logic and screen counts it should touch the 500 cr feet.
    Yes it might mint grt figure in overseas, mostly china and the middle east countries..

    ReplyDelete
  8. hope the best success of the film. Allah jane.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Bakwass third class movie....crush after weekend

    ReplyDelete
  10. Very Bad movie...mahaflop movie
    Dont waste your time & money...

    ReplyDelete
  11. Flop movie don't waste time & money

    ReplyDelete
  12. सुपर फ्लॉप मूवि

    ReplyDelete
  13. Really disappointed with Tubelight , better to wait for Toilet:Ek Prem Katha....

    ReplyDelete