January 24, 2017

Kaabil Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Kaabil is the first major release of the year 2017 alongwith Raees. Kaabil stars Hrithik Roshan in lead role and much is expected from the film. Hrithik wants to bounce big time after the debacle of Mohenjo Daro and what's better than his home production in Kaabil. Good news is Kaabil is getting released on 25th January, 2017 and will get 5 days of extended holiday weekend. Bad news is that it has to fight it out with Raees and definitely screening will be reduced then a normal big release film.


Hence, without any more further delay let's start the box office prediction of Kaabil and see whether it will be a Hit or Flop?

Economics - 

Budget - There is an official statement on Kaabil budget and that is approx INR 50 crore [Film cost - 35 crore + P&A -15 crore]. Hrithik fees is not included.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again official statement is that Kaabil Satellite rights is sold for approx INR 50 crores. 50 crore looks a gross figure. That means there is some kind of performance incentive attached and film needs to cross some pre-defined domestic box office benchmark to achieve that added bonuses. Ideally Satellite rights of Kaabil will be around 30-35 crores. At most may be 40 crores. Music rights are sold for 8 crores. Means if we take a median value of Satellite Rights [35 crores], then non-theatrical recovery is around 43 crores [bare minimum]. Means makers have already recovered 85% of investment just from non-theatrical revenues.


Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Again there is official statement on Kaabil theatrical rights. All India theatricals are sold to distributors for around INR 42 crores. Overseas rights are sold for 18 crores. Means makers have already recovered around 60 crore combined from Worldwide theatricals. They are already into huge profits and nothing left for recovery. 

When Non-theatrical and Theatrical recoveries are taken into account then total recovery for makers is approx INR 103 crores. Plus, there is performance incentive from Satellite rights and distributor share tie-up which will only add to the moolah. Means makers [Rakesh Roshan + Hrithik Roshan + Team] have already made a huge profit of around INR 53 crores before the release of the film and it can only further add up.

Now it is all about Distributor recovery. If film collects around 85-90 crore nett in India, all India distributors are in safe zone. Anything above that will be profits for them and film will be declared Clean Hit. As for Overseas distributors, film needs to collect a gross figure of 40-45 crores there. Then they are safe and anything above that will be profits for them.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2200-2300 screens or round about. Screens are bit less for a Hrithik starrer film, but still enough considering the extended weekend to 'Rock' box office. 

Single Day Business Potential - As Kaabil set to release in nearly 2200-2300 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 23-24 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Wednesday) - Kaabil is releasing on normal Wednesday. However film will pick up big from Evening onward as Thursday is National Holiday. So, if film starts with an opening of 12-13 crore or more it will be a great start. Anything above 13-14 crores is outstanding stuff, considering National Holiday still to come. Film will strike big on 26th January as it is Holiday all across India.

First Weekend Collection (Wednesday-Sunday) - Kaabil should collect around 70 crore nett in opening extended weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 75-80 crore nett mark if film is accepted big by the audiences.

Lifetime Business - If Kaabil word of mouth is even decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 100 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 125 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 150 crores.


Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 12-13 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 75+ crore nett.
If mixed: 60-70 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 55 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 100-135 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 90 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Kaabil business anywhere between 115-125 crore nett. That means Kaabil should be the 1st Hit of 2017. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of going past 125 crore and challenging 150 crore nett mark and be the first Super Hit of the year. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, reduced screen count, trailer response, song promos and Hrithik Roshan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: Hit

Do let us know your prediction for this Republic Day Weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150 or 200 crore or more at box office!

Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2017!

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15 comments:

  1. Kaabil will collect more in India than raees....when looking at the highest grossing movies of Hritikh and Srk in india, Hrithik's Krrish 3 collected 242 crore while Srk's Chennai express collected lower than that (227 crores)...Srk is very cunning and will get more screens for raees than what roshan will get for kaabil (just like what srk did when his jab tak hai jaan clashed with son of sardar)...but kaabil will win in the end because it appears to have a better storyline and lots of emotion while raees seems to be just another gangster movie with a love story forced into the script in between fight scenes...kaabil trailor reminded me of aamir's ghajini

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  2. Please don't write that movies are already in profits ....it shows really igor nave of your website ..
    No one will pay you rs 1 for not performing in today's times ...raaes and kaabil are both very risky propositions ...have u heard any one telling u and and families .that we planning to watch raees or kabil ..both are totally dependent on content and word of mouth ...they not dabang, dangal ...these movies were predicided by audience ...I will say both very very risky bets

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  3. Krissh 3 does around 180 cr and which is even silently accepted now by sites like adda today which normally gives producers figure. Look as per boi its 172 and it has been exaggarrated at insanely looking 244 cr by producers. Its comparable to shahrukhs happy new year. Just like shahrukh hny didnot do 44 cr in its opening day krissh 3 also didnot fetch 244 crin its life time total and this is an open secret. In comparission chennai express though exxagarated at whopping 227 cr actually did 211 cr which actually did wonders at that time and was 1st to break 3 idiots record at 201 cr and was highiest grosser of all time by than which was short lived and comsecutively thrashed by dhoom 3 by huge margin. Well coming to gajini kabil seems more into slapstick spoof zone. It tries hard but it looks mediocre while gajini was much raw and intense.thx.

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    Replies
    1. I know Krrish 3 figures were manipulated, but so was Happy New Year and Chennai Express figures...Happy new year collecting 44 crore in one day is not possible considering how shitty that movie was

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    2. Kaabil is not a remake of any movie...Ghajini was a remake of a madraasi movie, which itself was a remake of Memento...

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  4. Well said robin...ow both srk and hrithik the cons cong together .haha...we will see gross figures of both now one week breaking all records ...haha . I still though don't beleven chennai broke any record as setting makes 100 credit.movies so does srk ..whole game was manipulated ..think they beat El tha tiger and that not possible
    .tiger was class and salman .
    Chennai was crash and lowly movie ...

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  5. kaabil boxoffice collection
    day1--9.70
    day2--14.2
    day3--8.5
    day4--10.2
    day5--11.5
    day6--5.3
    day7--4.5
    day8--3.9
    day9--3.5

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  6. Ritika is best actor...As my view he not cunning like other actor ...

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  7. Kaabil will be first hit of the year .... 100-130cr life time. ..

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  8. kabil ...kabil h.....Raees baimaan aatankwadi...

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  9. kaabil 140cr lifetime become 2017 blockbuster

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  10. Kaabil all time blockbuster move,

    Raees is super flop move, flop actor.

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