What one can expect from a Aamir Khan film and that also releasing in Christmas period. Yes, only record breaking stuff and setting new benchmark. That is the high standard he maintains among movie lovers. Yes, Aamir Khan is back and this time he is all set and ready for Dangal at ticket counters.
Dangal is the most awaited film of 2016 and set to end the year with a bang. Film is a biographical sports drama based on life of Mahavir Singh Phogat, who taught wrestling to his daughters Geeta Phogat and Babita Kumari.
There is no doubt film will open huge at box office and without any more delay let's do the box office prediction of Dangal. Will it be a Hit or Flop?
Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 90-95 crore [Production cost: 70-75 crores. P&A included]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Dangal Satellite rights have been sold for a Historic 75 crores to Zee. Out of which 55 crores is as minimum guarantee and rest 20 crores are performance incentive. So, depending on Dangal box office performance film Satellite Rights will be anywhere between 55-75 crores. This is record setting stuff. Means a large part of recovery is already done from it. Plus, there is music and other rights which will atleast give a return of 10 crores. So, non-theatrical recovery will be anywhere between 65-85 crores. Let's take a median value as 75 crores.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Dangal has already recovered around 75 crores [median value] from non-theatrical recovery. Film just needs to recover another 20 crores from India and Overseas theatrical to break even. Anything above it will be profits. This is simply cakewalk and shall easily be achieved in a single day of Worldwide business of Dangal.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4000 screens or may be more. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Yes, there are chances that film might get the biggest release ever in history of Bollywood and picture will be clear in few days time.
Single Day Business Potential - As Dangal set to release in nearly 4000 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 40-45 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection - Dangal is releasing on normal Friday. So, if film starts with an opening of 20 crore or more it will be a great start. Anything above 25 crores is outstanding stuff, considering weekend is still to come. If content is liked Sunday may even challenge 40 crore mark.
First Weekend Collection - Dangal should touch or collect over 90 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 100 crore nett mark if film is accepted by the audiences.
Lifetime Business - If Dangal word of mouth is even decent, then movie has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 250-275 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 300 crores. If word of mouth is excellent anything is possible and all time records will tumble then.
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First Day: Expected around 25-30 crore nett.
If accepted: 100+ crore nett.
If mixed: 80-95 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 70 crore nett.
If accepted: 260+ crore nett.
If mixed: 180-250 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 170 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Dangal business anywhere between 270-310 crore nett. That means Dangal will be either the 1st or 2nd highest grosser of 2016. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of touching 300 crore and even going beyond and smashing all time records. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Aamir Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 300 crore nett at box office and challenges PK, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan figures.
Do let us know your prediction for this Christmas Weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 200, 250 or 300 crore or more at box office!