November 9, 2016

Shivaay is a Hit or Flop? Economics and Analysis. You asked it.

Many readers are asking the question whether Shivaay is a Hit or Flop? Whether film will recover its investment or not. We will try to answer it in a simplest way possible.

Shivaay Budget - Although not official it is estimated around 110-115 crores.


Non-Theatrical Recovery - Ajay Devgn had luckily a deal with Star network and hence, irrespective of film business it will not change much post film release and its theatrical verdict. Shivaay Satellite right should still remain anywhere between 35-40 crores. Music, Home video and other rights total should be 9-11 crores approx. Hence, total non-theatrical revenue will be around 44-51 crores. So, we take the median valued as 47-48 crore mark [approx].

After deducting the non-theatrical revenue from Shivaay film budget [(110-115) - (47-48)], another 63-67 crores [65 crores as median] is need to be recovered from worldwide theatricals. Since, Shivaay has done extremely poor business in Overseas, most of the recovery will now be from Indian market only. At most 6-7 crores of distributor share will be recover from Overseas looking at film business there. Hence, Shivaay needs another 58-59 crores as distributor share from India. 

As, film majority business is from single screens in India, where distributor share ratio is generally more than multiplexes. Means, film need to do business of 115 crore nett or so to just break even. Anything above 120-125 crore nett will be profits for the film.

Right now Shivaay has posted approx 87+ crore nett in first 10 days. Film need another 28 crore atleast just to break even and 33 crore or above to have any kind of profit. This looks extremely tough right now and film needs excellent trending from here on.

Shivaay Box Office Verdict [Trade Estimated] - 

Less than 75 crores - Disaster
80-95 crores - Flop
96-115 crores - Average [Below Average, Average]
116-149 crores - Plus Zone [Above Average, Semi - Hit, Hit]
150-199 crores - Super HIT
200 crores and above - Blockbuster

Current Shivaay Business till 10 days - 87 crore nett

Note - This is just an analysis on whether Shivaay will be Hit or Flop? Final actual verdict will be known once film completes its theatrical run. Hope that answers lots of queries and confusion over Shivaay movie verdict. Thanks!


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1 comment:

  1. Good analysis.. Though I have my doubts.. I believe the producersvare already in profit once the movie crossed the 80 crore mark..as far as distributors are concerned..they might have very little profit or loss..so overall we can safely say movie is in safe zone...n once it reaches 100 crore mark..it can be called a profitable venture

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