Shivaay is the big Diwali release starring Ajay Devgn, Erika Kaar and Sayyeshaa. Film is directed and produced by Ajay Devgn himself. His hardwork for nearly 2 years is finally coming near to your theater on 28th October, 2016. So, how will film fare at box office. Will it be the biggest Hit of Ajay Devgn career. Or is it risk worth taking. We will try to solve this jigsaw puzzle in this post. So, without any more delay, let's do the box office prediction of Shivaay. Will it be a HIT or Flop?
First thing first. Shivaay is not the only release this Diwali. In fact, it will clash with another biggie in Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. Hence, logic says Shivaay will have to share screening to ADHM also. However ADHM is facing some issues regarding its screening in India and there is a big chance that by the time of both film releases, Shivaay will lead the screen count. Anyways Shivaay was almost certain to get more screening in single screens even before the issues are raised.
Budget - Estimated at INR 110-115 crores [Including P&A.]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Ajay Devgn had a deal with Star network and as per that Satellite Rights should be around 35-40 crores. Music rights will add another 7-8 crores. Home video and rest will add another 2-3 crores. Total recovery from non-theatrical revenue is approx 45-50 crores.
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Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Around 60-70 crores or so needed by Shivaay to recover and break even. Anything above that will be profits. That should not be a difficulty as a significant portion of that will be recovered from Overseas theatrical also. In worst case scenario even if a paltry 15-20 crores are recovered overseas, then India theatrical recovery is around 50 crore at most. Means, film need to collect in excess of 100 crore nett to break even. Anything above that region will be profits.
Release Screen Count - As Shivaay is clashing with Ae Dil Hai Mushkil film screening will be affected. Still it should lead ADHM in screen count front. We expect around 2500+ screens Shivaay should get this Diwali.
Single Day Business Potential - As Shivaay set to release in nearly 2500+ screens this Diwali. Film has potential to collect nearly 25+ crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Wednesday) - Shivaay is releasing on pre-Diwali period. So, even a 40-50% occupancy start will be good for the film. Hence, if film collects 12-13 crore nett will be a good start at box office.
First (Extended) Weekend Collection (Friday-Monday) - Shivaay will have an extended weekend of 4 days as Monday will be a Diwali Holiday. Hence, film will aim for 55-60 crore nett in those days with good trending. Anything on par will be great and above will be fantastic.
Lifetime Business - If Shivaay word of mouth is decent, film has every chance of going past 100 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should touch or cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime. Means it has a chance to be highest grossing film of Ajay Devgn career. Who knows even more than that if film finds excellent appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 12-13 crore nett.
If accepted: 55-60+ crore nett.
If mixed: 46-54 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 45 crore nett.
If accepted: 160-170+ crore nett.
If mixed: 100-150 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 90 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Shivaay business in the region of 150-160 crore nett. That means Shivaay should be the highest grosser of Ajay Devgn career and should be 2nd highest grosser of 2016. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, clash, trailer response, song promos and Ajay Devgn star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 150-160 crore nett at box office and challenges 200 crore magical mark.
Verdict: Super Hit.
Do let us know your prediction for this Diwali weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150 or 200 crore or more at box office!