Ae Dil Hai Mushkil is one of the most anticipated movie of the year starring Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, Ranbir Kapoor and Anushka Sharma. Film is directed by none other than Karan Johar and it is slated for big Diwali release.
Although theatrical trailer received mixed feedback initially, but songs of the film are outright chartbuster which rocketed the buzz of the film just before its release time. Film is carrying good reports and there is no doubt it will start with bang in ticket counters.
Only one thing is going against it and that is its box office clash with another biggie in Shivaay. So, without any more further delay let's do the box office prediction of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil.
Budget - Estimated at INR 80-85 crores [Including P&A.]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Satellite Rights of ADHM is estimated at around 27-30 crores. Music rights are estimated to sold for around 10-12 crores. Other rights should fetch another 2-3 crores. That means around 40-45 crores are already recovered from non-theatrical revenues before the release of the film.
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Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Around 40-45 crores or so needed by Ae Dil Hai Mushkil to recover and break even. Anything above that will be profits. That should not be a difficulty as a significant portion of that will be recovered from Overseas theatrical also. In worst case scenario even if a paltry 15 crores are recovered overseas, then India theatrical recovery is around 25-30 crore at most. Means, film need to collect in excess of 60 crore nett to break even. Anything above that region will be profits. So, film can already touted as profitable venture even before the release.
Release Screen Count - ADHM screening should be around 2200-2400 approx. Reason, Shivaay is also clashing and substantial screen space will be lost.
Single Day Business Potential - As ADHM set to release in nearly 2200-2400 screens this Diwali. Film has potential to collect nearly 23-24 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Wednesday) - ADHM is releasing on pre-Diwali period. So, even a 40-50% occupancy start will be good for the film. Hence, if film collects 10-12 crore nett will be a good start at box office.
First (Extended) Weekend Collection (Friday-Monday) - ADHM will have an extended weekend of 4 days as Monday will be a Diwali Holiday. Hence, film will aim for 50 crore nett in those days with good trending. Anything on par will be great and above will be fantastic.
Lifetime Business - If ADHM word of mouth is decent, film has every chance of going past 90-100 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should touch or cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime. Means it has a chance to be a big hit at box office. Who knows even more than that if film finds excellent appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 10-12 crore nett.
If accepted: 50-55+ crore nett.
If mixed: 41-49 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 40 crore nett.
If accepted: 140-150+ crore nett.
If mixed: 90-130 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 80 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Ae Dil Hai Mushkil business in the region of 125-130 crore nett. That means ADHM should be a big grosser at box office in 2016 and be a big Hit. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, clash, trailer response, song promos and star cast factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 125-130 crore nett at box office.
Verdict: Super Hit.
Do let us know your prediction for this Diwali weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 125, 150 or 200 crore or more at box office!