Sultan is the biggest event film of the year so far for many reasons. Film stars Salman Khan and Anushka Sharma. Salman and YRF is coming back again after monumental success of Ek Tha Tiger. Sultan is the only release of Salman in 2016. Film is releasing on EID and will have a 5 day extended weekend. There is no doubt that film will open huge and shatter few records on the way at box office. So, without any delay let's do the box office prediction of Sultan. Will it be a Hit or Flop?
Budget - Estimated at INR 90-95 crore [Including P&A. Salman fees not included]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Salman Khan has an exclusive Satellite rights deal for his films. But that doesn't include Ek Tha Tiger and now Sultan as YRF has already a deal with Sony. Hence, whatever 50-55 crore YRF gets as satellite rights deal from Sony will directly go to pocket of Salman. Yes, there may be added performance incentives like profit sharing for him. So, as for non-theatrical recovery YRF have only music and other rights with them, which will be anywhere between 10-15 crores.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Around 80 crore or so needed by YRF to recover to break even. Anything above that will be profits. That should not be a difficulty as film will get 5 day extended opening weekend and large portion of that amount will be recovered by then itself. Plus, there is overseas. As per our calculation film should start getting profit from 1st Monday itself.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Yes, there are chances that film might get the biggest release ever in history of Bollywood and picture will be clear in few days time.
Single Day Business Potential - As Sultan set to release in nearly 4000 screens this Wednesday. Film has potential to collect nearly 40-45 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Wednesday) - Sultan is releasing on EID on National Holiday. So, collection will be huge and historic. A 30+ crore start will be good for the film. Anything above that will be fantastic. Yes, it has chances of touching 40 crore nett on day one itself.
First Weekend Collection (Wednesday-Sunday) - Sultan should easily collect over 100 crore nett in extended opening weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 130-140 crore nett mark if film is accepted by the audiences.
Lifetime Business - If Sultan word of mouth is decent film has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 250-275 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 300 crores. Who knows even more than that if film finds excellent appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 35-40 crore nett.
If accepted: 140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 105-135 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 100 crore nett.
If accepted: 270+ crore nett.
If mixed: 190-265 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 185 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Sultan business in the region of 270-280 crore nett. That means Sultan will be the highest grosser of 2016. It will be the 2nd highest grosser of Salman Khan ever after Bajrangi Bhaijaan. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Salman Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 300 crore nett at box office and challenges PK and Bajrangi Bhaijaan figures.
Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2015, 2016, 2017!
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