Housefull 3 is the biggest release of June month and is easily amongst one of the most awaited film of the year 2016. Film is the 3rd installment of successful franchise Housefull and hence expectation is big from it.
Film stars Akshay Kumar, Riteish Deshmukh, Abhishek Bachchan, Jacqueline Fernandez, Nargis Fakhri and Lisa Haydon in lead roles. Film is an out and out comedy entertainer and if content is good then will immensely liked and accepted by theater going audiences. Housefull 2 is a huge Hit and zoom past 100 crore at the time of release. Hence, it will be an big underachievement if 3rd installment fails to touch 100 crores. That is for taken. Question is how much more film collects after that. Let's do the box office prediction of Housefull 3 and whether it will be a Hit or Flop?
Budget - There is no official statement on the budget of the film. Our estimates suggest film landing cost including P&A is around INR 80 crore approx.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again official statement is not available on it. However looking at film face value Satellite Rights should be around INR 30-35 crores range. Nowadays satellite rights are performance based and hence actual will be known after the box office business of the film. Another 5-7 crore should be recovered via Music and other rights.
Amount Need to be Recovered for Break Even - After the deduction of Non-Theatrical Revenues, film need around 40-45 crores from India and Overseas theaters. That should not be of much difficulty as film is touted as next 100 crore film. So, distributor share of 50 crores or near about are expected from it and that is bare minimum.
Release Screen Count - Initial estimate suggest it should be around 3500 screens. Detailed one will be known close to the film release date.
Single Day Business Potential - As Housefull 3 set to release in nearly 3500 screens or may be more. Film has potential to collect nearly 35-37+ crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Housefull 3 is releasing on normal working day in India. So, if a biggie takes 40-50% opening on working day it is touted as very good. Anything in the region of 15-20 crore nett mark will be a good start. We think film should open in that range on day one.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Housefull 3 should collect in the region of 55-60 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.
Lifetime Business - If Housefull 3 word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of collecting around 125-150 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime and may go close to 175 crore also or even overhaul it. 200 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it. If God forbids film receive negative word of mouth then film may even fold below 100 crore nett mark.
First Day: Expected around 17-18 crore nett.
If accepted: 60+ crore nett.
If mixed: 50-59 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 45 crore nett.
If accepted: 150-160+ crore nett.
If mixed: 115-140 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 100 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Housefull 3 business in the region of 125-135 crore nett. That means Housefull 3 will be big Hit at box office and will attain Super Hit status. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Akshay Kumar and other star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 200 crore nett at box office.
Verdict: Super Hit
Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2016, 2017!