June 1, 2016

Housefull 3 Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Housefull 3 is the biggest release of June month and is easily amongst one of the most awaited film of the year 2016. Film is the 3rd installment of successful franchise Housefull and hence expectation is big from it. 

Film stars Akshay Kumar, Riteish Deshmukh, Abhishek Bachchan, Jacqueline Fernandez, Nargis Fakhri and Lisa Haydon in lead roles. Film is an out and out comedy entertainer and if content is good then will immensely liked and accepted by theater going audiences. Housefull 2 is a huge Hit and zoom past 100 crore at the time of release. Hence, it will be an big underachievement if 3rd installment fails to touch 100 crores. That is for taken. Question is how much more film collects after that. Let's do the box office prediction of Housefull 3 and whether it will be a Hit or Flop?

Economics - 

Budget - There is no official statement on the budget of the film. Our estimates suggest film landing cost including P&A is around INR 80 crore approx.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again official statement is not available on it. However looking at film face value Satellite Rights should be around INR 30-35 crores range. Nowadays satellite rights are performance based and hence actual will be known after the box office business of the film. Another 5-7 crore should be recovered via Music and other rights.

Amount Need to be Recovered for Break Even - After the deduction of Non-Theatrical Revenues, film need around 40-45 crores from India and Overseas theaters. That should not be of much difficulty as film is touted as next 100 crore film. So, distributor share of 50 crores or near about are expected from it and that is bare minimum.

Release Screen Count - Initial estimate suggest it should be around 3500 screens. Detailed one will be known close to the film release date.

Single Day Business Potential - As Housefull 3 set to release in nearly 3500 screens or may be more. Film has potential to collect nearly 35-37+ crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Housefull 3 is releasing on normal working day in India. So, if a biggie takes 40-50% opening on working day it is touted as very good. Anything in the region of 15-20 crore nett mark will be a good start. We think film should open in that range on day one.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Housefull 3 should collect in the region of 55-60 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.

Lifetime Business - If Housefull 3 word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of collecting around 125-150 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime and may go close to 175 crore also or even overhaul it. 200 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it. If God forbids film receive negative word of mouth then film may even fold below 100 crore nett mark.


First Day: Expected around 17-18 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 60+ crore nett.
If mixed: 50-59 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 45 crore nett.


If accepted: 150-160+ crore nett.
If mixed: 115-140 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 100 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Housefull 3 business in the region of 125-135 crore nett. That means Housefull 3 will be big Hit at box office and will attain Super Hit status. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Akshay Kumar and other star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 200 crore nett at box office.

Verdict: Super Hit

Do let us know your prediction for this 3rd installment of Housefull 3! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 125, 150, 175 or 200 crore at box office!

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  1. Ankur how much Housefull 3 will need to beocme a clean hit at box office ?

  2. 90-95..I guess U r giving one week Number..
    It will touch 150 with gud Wom( or even if wom would be like hf2)

    1. Abe ye ghatia movie 150 kya 80 crore bhi kamana nahi chahiye. Flop disaster movie housefull 3

    2. Movie release nhi hui...tu dekha nhi hai..so shut the f**k up..negative reviews agar mile tab bash kar lena

  3. @vasudev ...saket was replying to the first comment...hf3 needs 90-95cr to be a clean hit :)

  4. If first weekend collections will be 50-55 crore+ then definitely Housefull 3 will earn 140 crore + lifetime

  5. 175-200 cr india
    75-90 cr overseas

    worldwide gross collection - 350-400 cr

    1. Abe sapno se bahar nikl, worst movie hai.80crore bhi kama le to badi baat ho jati hai.

  6. Max 70 crore mark my words due to worst trailer so movie will be disaster

    1. 52Cr+ in first weekend itself. First week will cross 80Cr+.

  7. Worst movie, waste of money. Flop movie.

  8. agar yeh movie 70 cr krti hai to mein Salman ka fan bann jauga.....

    First weekend--55-60cr

    First week--90--95cr.

    Second week--35 cr.

    Rest of week--10--15cr.

    Total--140-150 cr..

  9. kuldeep....Bhai bournvita pee le bhai....130+ jaigi...likh kr deta hu

  10. It should and must be a flop..Its time India rejects such asinine movies and give respect to plot oriented movies rather than gimmicks

    1. There is an audience base for light hearted comedy movies mere bhai...so chup chap apna kaam kar..akki plot driven bhi kar raha...use ye bhi pata hai comedy movies ka akaal pada hua hai...movie may be a bad one.but genre ko gaali mat de

    2. It is not flop, First weekend already collected 52Cr+. Life time will cross 110Cr+ for sure.