Much awaited movie of the year FAN starring Shah Rukh Khan is just 10 days away from its release. Film is the biggest release of the year till date and will be one of the few who gets a solo release. Earlier FAN teaser suggested that it will be targeted towards a niche audiences. However with the release of Theatrical Trailer it is confirmed that film is a full commercial entertainer and hence prospect of the film doing huge business in theaters have multiplied. In addition to that it is SRK film and hence all his fans are eagerly waiting for it with bated breath. So, what business will FAN do at box office. let's do the box office prediction of FAN!
Budget - There is no official statement on the budget of the film. Our estimates suggest film landing cost including P&A is around INR 85-90 crore approx.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again official statement is not available on it. However looking at film face value Satellite Rights should be around INR 40 crores range. Rest of recovery is not much as only one promotional song is there in the film. Hence, total non-theatrical revenue should be around 45 crore region.
Amount Need to be Recovered for Break Even - After the deduction of Non-Theatrical Revenues, film need around 40-45 crores from India and Overseas theaters. Hence, film is already a safe proposition for the makers.
Release Screen Count - Initial estimate suggest it should be around 3500-4000 screens. Detailed one will be known close to the film release date.
Single Day Business Potential - As FAN set to release in nearly 3500 screens or more. Film has potential to collect nearly 35-40 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - FAN is releasing on normal working day with just few regional Holiday in some parts of India. So, generally a biggie if takes 50-60% opening on working day it is touted as very good. Anything in the region of 15-20 crore nett mark will be a good start. We think film should open close to 20 crore nett mark for day one.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - FAN should collect in the region of 75 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.
Lifetime Business - If FAN word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of collecting around 175-200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should cross 200 crore nett in its lifetime and sky is the limit after that. 300 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it. If God forbids film receive negative word of mouth then film may even fold below 130-140 crore nett mark.
First Day: Expected around 20 crore nett.
If accepted: 70-75+ crore nett.
If mixed: 60-69 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 55 crore nett.
If accepted: 210+ crore nett.
If mixed: 160-200 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 140-150 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting FAN business in the region of 180-190 crore nett. That means FAN will be the highest grosser of the year 2016 till date and will attain Super Hit/Blockbuster status. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Shah Rukh Khan factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 250-300 crore nett at box office.
Verdict: Super Hit/Blockbuster
Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2016, 2017!