April 14, 2016

FAN movie Box Office Prediction. Hit of Flop.

Much awaited movie of the year FAN starring Shah Rukh Khan is just 10 days away from its release. Film is the biggest release of the year till date and will be one of the few who gets a solo release. Earlier FAN teaser suggested that it will be targeted towards a niche audiences. However with the release of Theatrical Trailer it is confirmed that film is a full commercial entertainer and hence prospect of the film doing huge business in theaters have multiplied. In addition to that it is SRK film and hence all his fans are eagerly waiting for it with bated breath. So, what business will FAN do at box office. let's do the box office prediction of FAN!

Economics

Budget - There is no official statement on the budget of the film. Our estimates suggest film landing cost including P&A is around INR 85-90 crore approx.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again official statement is not available on it. However looking at film face value Satellite Rights should be around INR 40 crores range. Rest of recovery is not much as only one promotional song is there in the film. Hence, total non-theatrical revenue should be around 45 crore region.

Amount Need to be Recovered for Break Even - After the deduction of Non-Theatrical Revenues, film need around 40-45 crores from India and Overseas theaters. Hence, film is already a safe proposition for the makers.

Release Screen Count - Initial estimate suggest it should be around 3500-4000 screens. Detailed one will be known close to the film release date.
Single Day Business Potential - As FAN set to release in nearly 3500 screens or more. Film has potential to collect nearly 35-40 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Friday) - FAN is releasing on normal working day with just few regional Holiday in some parts of India. So, generally a biggie if takes 50-60% opening on working day it is touted as very good. Anything in the region of 15-20 crore nett mark will be a good start. We think film should open close to 20 crore nett mark for day one.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - FAN should collect in the region of 75 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.

Lifetime Business - If FAN word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of collecting around 175-200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should cross 200 crore nett in its lifetime and sky is the limit after that. 300 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it. If God forbids film receive negative word of mouth then film may even fold below 130-140 crore nett mark.

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 20 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 70-75+ crore nett.
If mixed: 60-69 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 55 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 210+ crore nett.
If mixed: 160-200 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 140-150 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting FAN business in the region of 180-190 crore nett. That means FAN will be the highest grosser of the year 2016 till date and will attain Super Hit/Blockbuster status. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Shah Rukh Khan factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 250-300 crore nett at box office.

Verdict: Super Hit/Blockbuster

Do let us know your prediction for this SRK biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 150, 200, or 300 crore at box office!


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41 comments:

  1. busiest actor tv or cinema SRK NEXT LINE UP……1.FAN ,2.RAEES , 3.SRK ALIA NEXT, 4.IMTIAZ ALI + anuska NEXT, 5.ANAND L RAI NEXT,6. DON3, 7.SANJAY LEELA BANSALI WITH SRK+ranveer, 8.RA ONE 2 , 9.Adithya Chopra next 10.Karan johar next, 11. simit amin next, 12.srk & rohit sheety angoor remade, 13.badshaa 2, 14.guru datt biopic AND 15. DHOOM series …..so 15 FILMS on the line

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  2. Replies
    1. Sorry its a Typo. Its Correct. Thanks.

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  3. FAN lyftime collection will under 30 cr...mark my words....because ipl session,present srk is zero value,non holiday,content copy from DARR,no music and songs,no story,no female actresses...all reason are sufficient for my prediction ...hope FAN do well in box-office ..

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    Replies
    1. fan relese ke baad fake id tu suicide karega beta...be ready yr dady is coming

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    2. hooooo gud joke ye 30 crores ek din me aa jate hey lets c

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  4. your prediction for fan is high I don't think it will do more than 200cr even if word of mouth is fantastic and the opening will not cross 20cr

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  5. Lifetime collections will be 120 -130 cr.. It will be another setback 4 distributors who invests huge money on SRK films..

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  6. Replies
    1. Faizur rahman@ you beed burnol fir your @ss

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  7. life time 190...but still not good

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  8. Highest grosser of the year this film

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  9. haters will do suicide after fan relese 8 DAYS FOR FAN

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  10. lifetime will be around 140-150 CR, an average or above average movie.
    I think Addatoday is trying to promote the movie by promoting the same article again and again as a top news article.

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    Replies
    1. Alibagh se aaaya hai kya? Prediction Ki Spelling Aati hai Pehel ye bata!

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  11. After Dilwale goes flop, this movie Fan is a do or die for SRK. If he has to remain in top 3 actors of Bollywood, the Fan movie must be a blockbuster or atleast super hit. Ranveer Singh's Bajirao Mastani has Beaten SRK's Dilwale and people are talking that days are counting now for SRK. Hope people forgot his anti-national comments and support him so he can sustain in Bollywood. Cheers

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  12. FAN looking bad..who'll spend hard earned money to see a fan going mad over his idol. SRK anyway is struggling to give highest grosser since 2007, his career is going down with time. he cant give big grossers without big heroines or directors. recently Ranveer exposed his stardom, while dilwale even had varun and kajol. thats shameful.

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    Replies
    1. If Bajirao Mastani took better initial than Dilwale then we could say that Ranveer exposed SRK's stardam..

      As approx with the same Screens Dilwale took way better initial than Bajirao Mastani even though the report of BM is extraordinary as compare to poor to mixed report of Dilwale...

      Content help BM to go past Dilwale box office collection in lifetime and not Ranveer.


      Big stars like SRK, Salman, Aamir, Hrithik guarantee for a bumper opening and after that content matters..

      Hope you understand....

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  13. There is no doubt that Ranveer Singh is a Good Actor, But Don't Compare him With SRK Due to One Big Film Like Bajirao Mastani. Ranveer Himself is a Biggest Fan of SRK.

    SRK is a Role Model For Almost All New Comers in Bollywood Since Hrithik Roshan, Hritesh Deshmukh, Shahid Kapoor to Current Lot Varun Dhawan, Siddarth Malhotra to Sushant Singh Raajpoot.

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  14. fan aane ke bad suicide to karega par srk fans ha ha lollll... jaise srk ki har movie aane se pahele 300cr 400cr bare bare fakte hai aur movie aane ke bad bil pe 6upte hai . Kismat ach6i hai jo jungle book 15tarikh ko nahi aaya warna fan ka lifetime 80cr vi nahi hota he he to srk fans jungle book ke producer ka sukriya karo haath paa pakarke lolllll

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  15. Dear Admin Please update the Advance Booking Report of FAN, Which is Starts Today.

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  16. FAN will find it difficult to reach even 150 CR.

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  17. FAN movie Box Office Prediction. Disaster or All Time Disaster.
    .
    .
    1 day 13 cr
    2 day 9 cr
    3 day 7 cr
    .
    .
    .
    lifetime 73.09 cr

    verdict-Disaster
    .
    .
    now

    .
    1 day 7 cr
    2day 4 cr
    3 day 1 cr
    .
    .
    .
    lifetime 17.01 cr
    .
    .
    verdict-all time Disaster

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will apply burnol in ur ass on 15 April night

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  18. I think it should be 200-280 crore sure Advance booking fabuless for weekend check online allready 80%+ Ticket Sold just amaging

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    Replies
    1. WORST MOVIE OF YEAR ..OCCUPANCY ALREADT DOWN TO 20 PERCENT ON MONDAAY...TOTAL DISASTER...FLOP

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  19. Paddo phaad dega fan tmhari haters 15 ko hi

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  20. ANKUR BHAI FAN KA PROMOTION BAHOT KARTE HO

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  21. even fan is flop I am Srk fan. now a days we hear fans are getting suicide if movie flops. but not I am. I am fan for a star. film didn't matter only star matters

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  22. ALWAYS SEEN THAT SRK MOVIE BUDGET 85-90,, AND ON 180-190 FILM BLOCKBUSTER, AND SALMAN MOVIE 115 AND NEEED 250+ FOR BLOCKBUSTER.. PRDP ONLY HIT AND DILWALE IS SUPERHIT...WHAT ABOUT FOOTFALL... I THINK ADATODAY IS PAID BY SRK.... DAILY PREDICTION OF HIT OR FLOP NEVER SEEN ..AND IT IS IS NOT MOST AWAITRD FILM AS SULTAN OR DANGAL

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  23. WORSE COPY OF DARR.........NOTHING NEW SRK HAS

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  24. ankur baruha kitna cheap h tu....rule rakhna h to sab ke liye same rakh kar...srk ki bejati kare to wo post nahi approved karega aur dusre actor ki koi bezati karta to turant approved kar deta...agar aisa hi karna h to koi v actor ke negative comment mat approve karo aur karna hi h to sabhi ke negative comment approve karo....ankur you r cheap same on you.

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  25. Why my post is not getting published here..Disappointed

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  26. Most Rubbish actor....He has given most rubbish movies in last 10 ,years........can't learn to act after 29 ,years in films....still overacts

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    Replies
    1. Srk is the best actor in the bollywood

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  27. SRK did very well in Fan but its clear movie is FLOP and collections are too bad.Still waiting for SULTAN.

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  28. Srk is the best n fan movie is awesome love you srk

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  29. Fan is blockbuster movie srk is the best actor in the bollywood

    ReplyDelete