December 15, 2015

Dilwale Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop.

Dilwale is set to end 2015 with bang at box office. It is definitely one of the biggest film of the year and expectation is colossal from it. Dilwale is slated for 18th December release and Christmas and New Year eve Holiday will fall after the film releases. Dilwale marks the return of lethal combination of Shah Rukh Khan - Rohit Shetty as Actor-Director duo. Both have earlier delivered Mega Hit in Chennai Express and this time expectation is to go one step ahead of it. Also, Dilwale marks the return of magical pairing of SRK and Kajol. In addition to that film has young star brigade in Varun Dhawan and Kriti Sanon who are playing pivotal role in the film. Buzz is also huge as promos are liked by one and all. Apart from all plusses, there is one big minus also. Film will not get solo release in fact is clashing with another biggie in Bajirao Mastani. So, there is no doubt that the later film will have some kind of affect in its lifetime outcome. So, without any more further delay let's do the box office prediction of Dilwale in style.

Economics - 

Budget - Estimated at INR 90-100 crore [Including P&A.]

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Around 45-50 crore is expected to recover from sale of Satellite rights. Music of the film is sold to Sony for whopping 15 crores. So, already around 60-65 crores are recovered. Plus there is home video and others.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Already a majority amount of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. So, an estimated recovery of further 30-35 crores will easily be done from India theatrical business in first weekend itself if all goes well. Plus there is rest of theatrical business. Also, overseas will come into effect. Film is already a safe proposition.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2800-3000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be the range. Screen Count is excellent considering there is also another biggie releasing on same date and that is finding tough to get the screens.

Single Day Business Potential - As Dilwale set to release in nearly 3000 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 30-32 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Dilwale is releasing on normal working day. So, generally a biggie if takes 60% opening on working day it is touted as very good. But since, Dilwale is getting little bit lesser screens because of clash may open bigger than 60%. Anything above 20 crore nett mark will be a great start. We think film should open between 20-25 crore nett mark for day one.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Dilwale should easily collect over 70-75 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz and despite having big clash with Bajirao Mastani. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.

Lifetime Business - If Dilwale word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should touch 250 crore nett in its lifetime. 300 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it. 

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 20-25 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 75+ crore nett.
If mixed: 65-74 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 60 crore nett.

Lifetime

If accepted: 240+ crore nett.
If mixed: 180-230 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 170 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Dilwale business in the region of 225 crore nett. That means Dilwale will be 2nd highest grosser of the year 2015 and will attain Blockbuster status. It will have close chase with Chennai Express which is currently the biggest grosser of SRK till date. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Shah Rukh Khan factor and big clash factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 300 crore nett at box office.

Verdict: Blockbuster

Do let us know your prediction for this Christmas and New Year biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 200, 250 or 300 crore or more at box office!


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25 comments:

  1. Good Prediction if it was solo It would have Done More Wonders at Boxoffice But More or less with a clash 200+Cr will be Great :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Opening - 21 Cr
    Weekend - 71 Cr
    Week - 115
    Life Time - 190 Cr
    Verdict - Super Hit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 100% accurate prediction..
      Maximum it we do 180-185cr

      Delete
    2. thank u bro, yes it will 180-190 cr range

      Delete
  3. verdict - avrj 2 hit only .....

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  4. blockbuster aur srk .... he he he big lolllllll last 5 yr srk only 1blockbustr - CE ... CE ko 6orkar sab avrj-hit-super hit bas

    ReplyDelete
  5. Box Office Prediction of @addatoday is really comprehensive, covering almost all possible factors, superb and 2nd to none.... The rest of your articles needs to be improved.... and please change the outlook and theme of your site the way @Indicine has improved drastically

    ReplyDelete
  6. It will be Average..crap content..only srk fans will watch it...

    Rest others will watch bajirao..

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  7. on 18th December it will be too much fun

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  8. Dilwale trailer was not tu good I think it will touch 190cr to 200 cr but in producer collection in tread it well collect around 170cr to 180 cr in mixed response .

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  9. 1st week 135-140 crore......2nd week 70-80 crore.....3rd week 40-50 crore.....

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  10. Generally Srk's films falls flat after 1st wknd.
    His all films in last 5 years are released on holiday wknd & their 70% business coverd in first 3days.

    Problem of this movie is its release date,because its 1st major holiday is on its day8.

    so i think this film will do max 180crs if accepted.
    but if it get same response like Ra1,D2,JTHJ & HNY(probably more chances as all Rohit Shetty films get mixed response) then anything around 150crs.

    Also lot depend on BM how it performance.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dekhte hai ye to waqt hi bataega dost

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  12. Dilwale make good profitable vs BM about my prediction:
    day1 -26 cr
    day2- 26 cr
    day3- 28 cr
    day4- 17 cr
    day5- 15 cr
    day7- 14 cr
    day8- 14 cr
    day9- 13 cr
    day10- 15 cr
    day11- 18 cr
    day12- 10 cr
    day13- 8 cr
    day14- 8 cr
    day15- 15 cr
    day16- 10 cr

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dilwale should be going bb status
    280-320cr

    ReplyDelete
  14. Baap of all movie dilwale coming 18 Dec Xmas... I have booked 4 tickets of dilwale in PVR..... Dying to watch dilwale
    ..srk kajol magic...srk shetti combo.... Varun kriti combo.....jony leaver king of comedy back....sanjay mishra back

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  15. I hope the film does well.The songs and trailer of the movie is pathetic.Best of luck to kamalesh

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  16. Tsiddarth kaun si duniya me hai gaane sabhi blockbuster hit Ho chuke hai aur movie bhi yahi hone wali hai...mil 25 k baad yahi

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  17. Day 1 expected 28_30 In pakistan 3days house full booking

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  18. Day 1 expected 28_30 In pakistan 3days house full booking

    ReplyDelete
  19. sk imran yeh mera khayal hai bhool he gy ho kay srk pori bollywood industry ka baadshah

    ReplyDelete