Dilwale is set to end 2015 with bang at box office. It is definitely one of the biggest film of the year and expectation is colossal from it. Dilwale is slated for 18th December release and Christmas and New Year eve Holiday will fall after the film releases. Dilwale marks the return of lethal combination of Shah Rukh Khan - Rohit Shetty as Actor-Director duo. Both have earlier delivered Mega Hit in Chennai Express and this time expectation is to go one step ahead of it. Also, Dilwale marks the return of magical pairing of SRK and Kajol. In addition to that film has young star brigade in Varun Dhawan and Kriti Sanon who are playing pivotal role in the film. Buzz is also huge as promos are liked by one and all. Apart from all plusses, there is one big minus also. Film will not get solo release in fact is clashing with another biggie in Bajirao Mastani. So, there is no doubt that the later film will have some kind of affect in its lifetime outcome. So, without any more further delay let's do the box office prediction of Dilwale in style.
Budget - Estimated at INR 90-100 crore [Including P&A.]
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Around 45-50 crore is expected to recover from sale of Satellite rights. Music of the film is sold to Sony for whopping 15 crores. So, already around 60-65 crores are recovered. Plus there is home video and others.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Already a majority amount of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. So, an estimated recovery of further 30-35 crores will easily be done from India theatrical business in first weekend itself if all goes well. Plus there is rest of theatrical business. Also, overseas will come into effect. Film is already a safe proposition.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2800-3000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be the range. Screen Count is excellent considering there is also another biggie releasing on same date and that is finding tough to get the screens.
Single Day Business Potential - As Dilwale set to release in nearly 3000 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 30-32 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Dilwale is releasing on normal working day. So, generally a biggie if takes 60% opening on working day it is touted as very good. But since, Dilwale is getting little bit lesser screens because of clash may open bigger than 60%. Anything above 20 crore nett mark will be a great start. We think film should open between 20-25 crore nett mark for day one.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Dilwale should easily collect over 70-75 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz and despite having big clash with Bajirao Mastani. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go higher than the expected levels.
Lifetime Business - If Dilwale word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film should touch 250 crore nett in its lifetime. 300 looks out of reach currently and will need outstanding word of mouth to have an outside chance to achieve it.
First Day: Expected around 20-25 crore nett.
If accepted: 75+ crore nett.
If mixed: 65-74 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 60 crore nett.
If accepted: 240+ crore nett.
If mixed: 180-230 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 170 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Dilwale business in the region of 225 crore nett. That means Dilwale will be 2nd highest grosser of the year 2015 and will attain Blockbuster status. It will have close chase with Chennai Express which is currently the biggest grosser of SRK till date. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, Shah Rukh Khan factor and big clash factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than the expected and may even challenge 300 crore nett at box office.