Bajirao Mastani is the big release this Christmas and New Year eve. Film stars Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone and Priyanka Chopra in lead roles. Film is directed by Sanjay Leela Bhansali and is slated for release on 18th December, 2015. Although buzz of the film is good, still Bajirao Mastani will face a tough hurdle in Dilwale which releases on same date. Means, Bajirao Mastani will find it tough to get good screen count. Also, audiences may gave preference to Dilwale first. Still film is releasing on good Holiday period and hope that it emerges victorious against all odds to be a successful film. Let's do the box office prediction of Bajirao Mastani with elan.
Budget - Estimated at INR 125-130 crore [Including P&A.]
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Rumour is Bajirao Mastani Satellite Rights are sold for whopping 45-50 crore. Music rights for the film is not known but expected to earn at least 7 crores from that. So, already around 52-57 crores are recovered. Plus there is home video and others.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Already a good part of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. So, an estimated recovery of further 73 crores need to done from worldwide theatrical business. If suppose film recovers 15-20 crores from Overseas, then it needs to do business of 110-115 crore nett to break even. Anything above that will be profits for the makers.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be the range. Screen Count is excellent considering there is also Dilwale releasing on same date and hence it will find tough to get the screens.
Single Day Business Potential - As Bajirao Mastani set to release in nearly 2000 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 20 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Bajirao Mastani is releasing on normal working day. So, generally such biggie if takes 50-60% opening on working day it is touted as very good. But since, it is getting little bit lesser screens because of clash may open bigger than 60%. Anything above 12 crore nett mark will be a good start. We think film should open between 12-14 crore nett mark for day one.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Bajirao Mastani should collect around 40-45 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz and despite having big clash with Dilwale. If film gets mixed reaction from audiences then collection may be little less than trade expectation. If audience reaction is terrific then it may go little higher than the expected levels.
Lifetime Business - If Bajirao Mastani word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of going past 100 crore at box office. If word of mouth is very good to excellent then film may even touch 150 crore nett in its lifetime.
First Day: Expected around 12-14 crore nett.
If accepted: 45+ crore nett.
If mixed: 35-44 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 34 crore nett.
If accepted: 135+ crore nett.
If mixed: 95-130 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 90 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Bajirao Mastani business in the region of 110-120 crore nett. Had it got solo release would have definite chance of pushing for 140-150 crore mark also with good word of mouth. But because of clash with Dilwale we think Bajirao will be affected big time. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos, star factor and big clash factor. Still hope film does much better business and outperforms all our prediction to collect even more than that.