Prem Ratan Dhan Payo is not only the biggest film of the season, but in fact is the biggest film of the year so far. PRDP makes the return of deadly combination of Sooraj Barjatya and Salman Khan. They have done 3 films earlier and their track record is 100% intact. Plus, film is getting solo release in Diwali with 2 weeks of free running till release of another biggie in Tamasha. There is no doubt that family audiences will come out in huge numbers and film will take record breaking start at box office. Many in trade are expecting box office to be re-written by it and new benchmark are expected to be created. In fact many in trade are saying that if film fails to touch 200 crores then it will be a big disappointment. Such is the expectation from the film. In fact few optimist are predicting that film might even challenge PK lifetime record and may even surpass it. Time will only tell where film will stand among the recent biggies. Till then let's do the box office prediction of Prem Ratan Dhan Payo.
Budget - Approx INR 110-120 crore [Including P&A.]
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Around 50-55 crore is recovered from selling of Satellite Rights as per Star Network deal with Salman Khan. That could be Salman's remuneration also. Rest if film makes profit then he will get his shares. Music of the film is sold for whopping 17 crores. So, already around 77-82 crores are recovered.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Already a big amount of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. However Satellite rights money may not go into pocket of Rajshri as it is with Salman. Hence, ideally film needs a distributor share of 100 crores from both India and Overseas to be safe and be in Hit zone. That looks extremely possible as film is set to cross 200 crore nett in India itself.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 3800-4000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Yes, there are chances that film might get the biggest release ever in history of Bollywood and picture will be clear in few days time.
Single Day Business Potential - As PRDP set to release in nearly 4000 screens this Thursday. Film has potential to collect nearly 40-45 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Thursday) - PRDP is releasing on Diwali on National Holiday. So, collection will be huge and historic. A 30+ crore start will be good for the film. Anything above that will be fantastic. Yes, it has chances of touching 40 crore nett on day one itself.
First Weekend Collection (Thursday-Sunday) - PRDP should easily collect over 100 crore nett in extended opening weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 125 crore nett mark if film is accepted by the audiences.
Lifetime Business - If PRDP word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 250-275 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 300 crores. Who knows even more than that if film finds appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 35-40 crore nett.
If accepted: 130+ crore nett.
If mixed: 100-125 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 95 crore nett.
If accepted: 275+ crore nett.
If mixed: 190-270 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 185 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting PRDP business in the region of 275-300 crore nett. That means PRDP will be 2nd highest grosser of Salman Khan till date. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Salman Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 300 crore nett at box office and challenges PK and Bajrangi Bhaijaan figures.
Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2015, 2016, 2017!
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