Akshay Kumar had three releases in 2015 in Baby, Gabbar and Brothers. He is ready with his fourth and final release in Singh is Bliing which is directed by his favorite Prabhudheva. SIB is one of the most important release of Akshay considering the fact that all his earlier release this year have failed to touch 100 crore nett mark at box office. So, hope that SIB storm past 100 crore mark and end 2015 for Akshay in style. SIB has got solo release and has got one of the biggest release date. As per promo film is an out and out entertainer and it has everything going to rock box office. So, with all positivity lets do the box office prediction of Singh Is Bliing.
Budget - Approx INR 85-90 crore [Including P&A]. No official statement yet on Budget.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again no official update on Satellite rights. Music rights are acquired by Zee music. Estimation is that around 40 crore nett will be recovered from non-theatrical revenue [Satellite + Music + other]. Numbers may vary also and depends on film theatrical performance.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - A big amount of money of the film will be recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. Around 40 crore approx will be recovered through that. Hence, another 45-50 crores distributor share is needed to break even as far as makers are concerned.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release in 3000-3500 screens. Screens are not yet locked yet and hence figure may vary.
Single Day Business Potential - As SIB is releasing in 3000-3500 screen approx, hence it has potential of collecting 30-35 crore nett mark in a single day with 100% ideal occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - SIB is releasing on 2nd October and since its National Holiday film should rock big time at box office. A 20 crore nett mark is definitely on cards with good opening. If film opens big then it can even challenge 25 crore nett mark.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - With National Holiday falling on Friday, film should record bumper opening at box office specially in first weekend. Trade is expecting film to collect in the region of 55-60 crore in opening weekend.
Lifetime Business - If SIB word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of go past 100 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 125 crore nett in its lifetime. Who knows even more than that if film finds appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 20 crore nett.
If accepted: 60+ crore nett.
If mixed: 50-59 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 45 crore nett.
If accepted: 130+ crore nett.
If mixed: 90-125 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 85 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting SIB business in the region of 110-120 crore nett. That means SIB may become the highest grosser of Akshay Kumar in 2015. However it will have tough task in hand to challenge Rowdy Rathore lifetime collection. If WOM is very good to excellent then it has good chance of that. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Akshay Kumar current star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 125 crore nett at box office.