14 August (this Friday) will see one of the biggest release of the year in Brothers starring Akshay Kumar, Sidharth Malhotra and Jacqueline Fernandez. Film is directed by Karan Malhotra and produced by Karan Johar. Akshay Kumar is finally coming with one of the biggest production house of India in Dharma Productions and hence expectation is huge.
Independence Day falls on Saturday and as it is one of the biggest days of the year, expect film to rock in opening weekend. Earlier in past films like Ek Tha Tiger (2012) and Singham Returns (2014) have recorded 30+ crore nett on Independence Day earlier and it will be interesting to note whether Brothers will collect similar numbers or not on day 2 when Independence Day falls. Independence Day fell on day 7 in case of Chennai Express and it still collected nearly 20 crore nett despite having fight with QUATIMD in 2013. So, just imagine the potential of the day. Good news is that Brothers is coming solo and already Baahubali, Bajrangi Bhaijaan are running in lower level now in theaters. Brothers are set to get around 3500 screen at least which is big. Screen allocation is still going on and actual will be known by Thursday night or Friday Morning. So, with so much potential on cards let's do the box office prediction of Brothers.
Budget - Approx INR 90 crore [Including P&A]. No official statement yet on Budget.
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Again no official update on Satellite rights. Music rights are acquired by Sony music. Estimation is that around 40 crore nett will be recovered from non-theatrical revenue. Numbers may vary also and depends on film theatrical performance.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - A big amount of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. Around 40 crore approx is recovered through that. Hence, another 50 crores distributor share is needed to break even as far as makers are concerned.
Release Screen Count - Film should get a release in 3500 screens. Screens are not yet locked yet and hence figure may vary.
Single Day Business Potential - As Brothers is releasing in 3500 screen approx, hence it has potential of collecting 34-35 crore nett mark in a single day with 100% ideal occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Brothers is releasing on Eve of Independence Day and hence there should be big jump in occupancy from Evening onwards. Film should easily go over 15 crore nett opening and may also close in 20 crore nett for the day.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - With National Holiday falling on Saturday, film should record bumper opening at box office specially in first weekend. Trade is expecting film to collect over 60 crore nett in first 3 days.
Lifetime Business - If Brothers word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of go past 125 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 150 crore nett in its lifetime. Who knows even more than that if film finds appreciation from all corners.
First Day: Expected around 18-20 crore nett.
If accepted: 65+ crore nett.
If mixed: 55-64 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 50 crore nett.
If accepted: 150+ crore nett.
If mixed: 110-145 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 100 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Brothers business in the region of 130-140 crore nett. That means Brothers may become the highest grosser of Akshay Kumar till date surpassing Rowdy Rathore. It means it is certain to be Sidharth Malhotra highest grosser ever. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Akshay Kumar, Sidharth Malhotra star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 150 crore nett at box office.
Verdict: Hit/Super Hit