July 14, 2015

Bajrangi Bhaijaan Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop.

Biggest film of the year is around the corner as Bajrangi Bhaijaan arrives this Eid at box office. When a Salman Khan film arrives and that also on occasion of Eid, then expectation is simply sky high from all corners, be it Salman fans, exhibitors, distributors, makers or even audiences. Of course it is an event film. With Bajrangi Bhaijaan same hysteria is expected again in a week time. Film is releasing on Friday and Eid falls on Saturday. So, expect a record breaking opening weekend for sure this time. 
Bajrangi Bhaijaan marks the return of deadly combo of Kabir Khan and Salman Khan. Last time they came together in Ek Tha Tiger it literally smashed all box office record then except the lifetime collection of 3 Idiots which was missed by a small margin. So, expectation is again colossal from this team. Film also stars Kareena Kapoor Khan and Nawazuddin Siddiqui. So, without any further delay lets start the box office prediction of Bajrangi Bhaijaan.

Economics - 

Budget - Approx INR 100-110 crore [Including P&A]

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Around 50-55 crore is recovered from selling of Satellite Rights as per Star Network deal. Another 8-10 crores will be recovered from Music Rights.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Already a big amount of money of the film is recovered from non-theatrical revenues like Satellite and Music rights and others. Around more than 60 crore approx is recovered already. Hence, another 50 crores are needed to break even as far as makers are concerned. That should be achieved in 3-4 days of film running itself in India. 

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 4000-4200 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Yes, there are chances that film might get the biggest release ever in history of Bollywood and picture will be clear by coming Wednesday or Thursday.

Single Day Business Potential - As Bajrangi Bhaijaan set to release in at least 4000-4200 this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 45 crore nett or more in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Friday) - Bajrangi Bhaijaan is releasing on Eid eve as festival falls on Saturday. So, collection will be no doubt huge, but will be less than Saturday and Sunday for sure. A 25-30 crore start will be good for the film. Anything above that will be fantastic.

First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Bajrangi Bhaijaan should collect 100 crore nett in opening weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers will be little higher or lower depending on how film starts on Friday (Pre-Eid) and how is the word of mouth.

Lifetime Business - If Bajrangi Bhaijaan word of mouth is decent to good film has every chance of going past 200 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 250 crore nett in its lifetime. Who knows even more than that if film finds appreciation from all corners.


First Day: Expected around 30 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 100+ crore nett.
If mixed: 90-100 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 85 crore nett.


If accepted: 240+ crore nett.
If mixed: 170-230 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 160 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Bajrangi Bhaijaan business in the region of 250 crore nett. That means BB will be highest grosser of Salman Khan till date. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, trailer response, song promos and Salman Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than 250 crore nett at box office.

Verdict: Blockbuster

Do let us know your prediction for this Eid Day biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 200, 250 or 300 crore or more at box office!

Also read - Release Dates of Bollywood Movies in 2015, 2016, 2017!

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  1. kick ne 235 cr kiya toh yeh toh 250 cr definately karegi

  2. get set ready for the 8th 100 cr movie line se lol
    aur 7th blockbuster ke liye countinue
    no actor has given back to back box office collections like this

  3. release screen count confirm 4800

    opening day 33-35 cr(expected)

    first week 200-210 cr(probably)

    lifetime 290-310 cr(estimate)

  4. Now less than 1 week and screens not yet confirmed any reason?


  6. First week Rs182cr
    Second week Rs55cr
    Third week Rs15cr
    Rest Rs12cr
    Total Rs264cr
    Btw PREM RATAN DHAN PAYO will do Rs320 or it will be the first Rs200cr average!

  7. @admin hwz the music of the film recieved?? Just good or very good ?? N what according to u is the buzz of the film?? Good or excellent?

  8. Eid may fall on sunday..!! Neway if film gets close to 110 cr weekend n 180 cr + week 1.. it wld mean the film wld be accepted n liked.. the film cld then do anywhr between 265- 290 cr depending on the repeat value!! To me the film looks simple and sweet if not made controversial by the few stupid antipeace elements!!

  9. Average movie.200 bhi kr le bahut hoga aisi movie ke liye

  10. 250 cr bhi kam hoga aisi movie ke liye

  11. I think, it will cross Dhoom 3 records considering it has all the elements including scale, plot, the biggest star and the biggest heroine and little kid as a push factor, Nawaz as backbone and direction and photography that will shock the world. I think at least it will make 280-290 crores in India and 20 million $ equal to 120 crore in overseas. Now lets see! I wish it break all the records.

  12. Friday 50 cr plus
    Sat 55 cr plus
    Sunday 75 cr plus
    First week 250 cr
    Lifetime gross 500 cr definitely

  13. Outstanding; speechless; it's a huge thumbs up for bajrangi bhaijaan ' ....
    Everyone went to tears with bajrangi bhaijaan coming to an end....
    Plsss watch bajrangi bhaijaan else you miss out your eidii ..

  14. bhajrangi bhaaijaan is blockbuster

  15. bhajrangi bhaaijaan is blockbuster

  16. bhajrangi bhaaijaan is blockbuster

  17. your estimates were quite close. though you covered yourself well with putting out different scenarios, perhaps next time only have one set of numbers for first day, first weekend, lifetime etc..

  18. haters ki toh bajj gyi 300 cr club me hai BB ..lol kya keh rhe the haters 200 krle bht hogga... hahahahaha sabki bajja di bhai ne