Gabbar is Back is the much awaited release coming this Friday on occasion of May Day. Film stars Akshay Kumar and Shruti Haasan. Bollywood is currently bleeding badly at box office and needs a Hit badly. Hope Gabbar is that Sanjeevani (medicine) for box office. Akshay Kumar starrer is coming solo this time and that also in Holiday weekend. So stage is set and potential is immense for that film. Now only the content that matters. Will Gabbar be the next Rowdy Rathore only time will tell. Before that let's do the box office prediction of Gabbar is Back.
Budget - Approximations: INR 70-75 crore [Film Cost - 60. P&A - 10-15]
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Around 35 crore is recovered from selling of Satellite Rights and 7 crore from selling of Music rights.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers already sold the theatrical rights for around 45-50 crore and that means they are already into profits. If now distributor make profits then they will get their part of additional profit share. As for distributors they will break even in around 90-95 crore nett zone. Anything above that mark will be profit for them. Anything less than that mark will be in loss. So, early assumption suggest film will be a clean Hit when Gabbar hits a century or above.
Release Screen Count - Gabbar should get a release of 3300-3500 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Number may increase to 3700-3800. Anyways film is releasing solo in Holiday and that amount of screens is more than enough to create havoc at box office.
Single Day Business Potential - With Gabbar set to release in at least 3300-3500 this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 35 crore nett or more in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Gabbar is releasing on May Day (Holiday) and expect film to open big. Ideally Holiday should bolster opening of 60%+ or more for an Akshay Kumar starrer. But Gabbar pre-release buzz suggest that film might have an opening of say 40-50% on Friday. That means 14-15 crore nett for day one and that is mainly due to the benefit of Holiday factor.
First Weekend Collection (Friday-Sunday) - Gabbar should collect around 40-45 crore nett in first weekend at box office. Film word of mouth is good to excellent then there is a chance of touching 50 crore nett also.
Lifetime Business - Gabbar should not have much difficulty going past a business of say 70 crore nett in first few days itself. Problem is film content needed to be good to go past a 100 crore mark. If film has decent to good content then it should go past 100 for sure.
First Day: Expected around 13-14 crore nett.
If accepted: 50-55+ crore nett.
If mixed: 35-49 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 34 crore nett.
If accepted: 125+ crore nett.
If mixed: 80-120 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 75 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Gabbar business in the region of 85-95 crore nett. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, masala genre factor and Akshay Kumar star factor after last release Baby. Hope we are proved wrong and Gabbar collects much more than what we predict and be a Big Hit at box office.
Verdict: Above Average-Semi Hit.
Also Read - Most Awaited Bollywood Movies of 2015