Baby starring Akshay Kumar, Taapsee Pannu and Anupam Kher is the first big release of 2015. Film is releasing on Republic Day weekend and should enjoy good first 4 days at box office as Monday is Holiday because of Republic Day. Baby is directed by Neeraj Pandey, who has earlier directed 'A Wednesday' and 'Special 26'. Both his earlier films not only earned critical acclaim, but also went onto become successful films. Hence, expectations are bigger with Baby as face value and plot is bigger this time.
Baby promo is liked by all and specially trade, who are touting it as one of the most awaited film of the year. However film is devoid of songs as script doesn't demand that, which may be a dampener for the film specially in mass dominated centers. So, with all plusses and minuses let's do the box office prediction of Baby movie. Here we go!
Budget - Approximations: INR 60-65 crore [Film Cost - 50-55. P&A - 10]
Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - A bare minimum of 30 crore should be recovered from Satellite Rights, Music, Home Video and others. Not officially confirmed but said amount should be recovered easily from all non-theatrical sources.
Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Makers need to recover an approximate amount of 35 crore (distributor share) from Theaters. That means when Baby collects over 70 crore nett in India, film will be safe. Overseas revenue will be added bonus then.
Release Screen Count - Baby should get a release of 2800-3000 screens. Screens are not yet locked but that should be a bare minimum figure. Number may increase to 3200-3300 but there is another important release in Dolly ki Doli which is releasing simultaneously, and it will definitely eat into the screens of former. Anyways 3000 screens are just enough for film like Baby to create Dhoom at box office.
Single Day Business Potential - With Baby set to release in at least 2800-3000 this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 30 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.
First Day Collection (Friday) - Baby is releasing on normal weekend with Friday being a working day. Plus film content without any great music might hamper it from great opening in single screens. Plus, Akshay Kumar is going through a moderate phase and currently is a level below Khan trio. So, taking all factors into account if film takes an opening of at least 40% then it will not be bad at all. If content is liked occupancy may increase with day passing. That means film should score between 12-15 crore range for day one.
First Extended Weekend Collection (Friday-Monday) - Baby will enjoy an extended weekend of 4 days starting from Friday till Monday (Republic Day). Film should collect around 50 crore nett for first 4 days at least. If film content is liked then first 4 days collection might be over 60 crore nett also.
Lifetime Business - Baby will zoom past 50-60 crore nett in first few days itself as film is enjoying extended weekend unless content is disliked immensely by the audiences. Film should in a likelihood do a business of 100 crore nett or even more with mixed to good word of mouth. If film is liked well then there is a big chance that film may do business in the region of 125-150 crore nett and be the biggest Hit of Akshay Kumar career ever.
First Day: Expected around 13-14 crore nett.
If accepted: 60+ crore nett.
If mixed: 45-59 crore nett.
If rejected: less then 44 crore nett.
If accepted: 130-140+ crore nett.
If mixed: 85-125 crore nett.
If rejected: Less than 80 crore nett.
Our Estimate: Baby should go over 100 crore nett in India with star power of Akshay Kumar and merit of Neeraj Pandey as the director. If content is liked film might go over 125 crore nett and can also challenge a lifetime of 150 crore nett at box office.
Verdict: Super Hit awaits.
Also Read - Most Awaited Bollywood Movies of 2015