September 23, 2014

Bang Bang Box Office Prediction - Hit or Flop

Bang Bang might be releasing on most peaceful day (2nd Oct) of the year, but is sure shot tsunami in coming with firing bullets and thus snatching all the peace at box office on that day. On 2nd October not only Bang Bang is releasing, but also another film Haider starring Shahid Kapoor and Shraddha Kapoor. So, it is some serious clash this time.

Bang Bang stars two of the hottest pair in Bollywood Hrithik Roshan and Katrina Kaif. Film is an action packed bonanza which is good blend for this festive time. Bang Bang is set to get some big Holidays like Gandhi Jayanti, Dussera/Vijaya Dashami, Eid al-Adha (Bakra Eid) in first few days itself. Film will also get good run also till the release of Happy New Year which releases on Diwali. Hence, everything going for Bang Bang may be except the simultaneous release of Haider.

As for Screen Count, Bang Bang should get screens in the region of 3000 in India alone. This is big considering there is another significant release. Actual will be known by the time of release, but should be in that range.

Single Day Potential: With 3000 screens release Bang Bang have still enough potential to earn over 25+ crore nett on a single day, ideally 28-29 crore nett and that's big.

First Day Collection: Film releasing on one of the biggest National Holiday is set to take at least Bumper start if not Earth Shattering. Even a 70% occupancy will take film over 20 crore nett mark. Occupancy of 85%+ will take film to 25+ crore nett for first day. With 2nd October being National Holiday film should score close to 25 crore nett mark and don't be surprised if it collects even more because of the Star Power of film and Holiday.

First Weekend (Extended - 4 days) Collection: There is Gandhi Jayanti, Bakra Eid, Dussera/Vijaya Dashami and Sunday Holiday in First Extended Weekend itself. This is definitely one of the biggest release date of 2014. If content of film is liked then it should do well on all four days of first weekend. Hence, a bare minimum of 80+ weekend looks like a certainty for the film if all goes well. Film may do business in the region of 90 crore nett also if word of mouth is excellent for the film.

Lifetime Business: Any film lifetime business is more or less dependent on film content. Yes, critics may reject a film on first day, but its the audiences real word of mouth which carries film after first weekend which matters at last. With such big Holidays around in first 4-5 days Bang Bang should at least target 180-190 crore nett in its lifetime, which will be good actually considering film will be released in 65-70% of full potential of total significant screen count in India. But still think film has real potential to go past 200 crore nett in its lifetime and may be even more who knows and even challenge Kick for Highest Grosser of 2014.

Box Office Predictions:

First Day: Expected around 25 crore nett range (Gandhi Jayanti Holiday + Clash with Haider)

First Weekend (4 days): 

If Accepted: 85-90+ crore nett.
If Mixed: 60-84 crore nett.
If Rejected: less than 59 crore nett.


If Accepted: 190+ crore nett.
If Mixed: 130-180 crore nett.
If Rejected: less than 125 crore nett

Our Estimate: Bang Bang had a real potential to do over 200 crore nett as one of the most awaited film of the year. But as film is not solo release and thus loses valuable screens from day one. Hence, we think film will do business in the region of 180-190 crore nett. We sincerely hope that our predictions prove wrong and film does over 200 crore nett and even challenges Kick lifetime numbers.

Verdict: Blockbuster
Film Running Time: 2 hours 35 minutes.

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