January 21, 2014

Jai Ho Box Office Prediction: Hit or Flop?

Salman Khan 'The Darling of Masses' is back with his new film 'Jai Ho' in 2014 at silver screen this January. Salman had no releases in 2013 and hence, his fans are eagerly awaiting for his next biggie with bated breath. Jai Ho is one of the biggest films of 2014 and definitely the first one to start in 2014. Astronomical expectations are from the film among the movie goers and even in trade. 

Jai Ho does not boast of A list stars except Salman Khan. Yes, there is Tabu, Danny Denzongpa but they are more of actors, then a star at present. Even Daisy Shah is debuting in Bollywood as leading actress in the film has hardly any following right now. So, will Jai Ho challenge box office records on a normal release. Most definitely yes, as it stars Salman Khan and he is now known as 'Blockbuster' Khan as his last 5 back to back releases are Blockbusters with Dabangg going to be an All Time Blockbuster. Salman Khan will try to defy all odds this time with 'Jai Ho' as he has neither Holiday benefits nor A list star to support him in 'Jai Ho'. Still never count out this Khan when he is on prowl. Let's start the Box Office Prediction of 'Jai Ho' with elan.

Potential of Jai Ho - Jai Ho will get release in 4300-4500 screens in India alone. That means film has ideally every chance to collect 40 crore nett in a single day and 100 crore nett in 3-4 days flat.

Budget of Jai Ho - Jai Ho Film Cost is around 55 crore. Add another 20 crore for Publicity and Advertisement. That means Budget of Jai Ho is around INR 75 crore.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release - Salman Khan films Satellite Rights for 5 years is already Sold to Star Network and 'Jai Ho' comes under that. That means 'Jai Ho' Satellite Rights should be around 50-55 crore approx as per the deal. Theatrical Distribution Rights (Worldwide) is already Sold to Eros for Whopping 111 crore minus CP, CI and Rajasthan, which are kept by Salman Khan himself. That means makers have already made huge money of 160+ crore and add to it Music, Home Video and other rights. Plus the profits from CP, CI and Rajasthan Theatrical Business. It is now upto Eros and Sub-Distributors to recover their cost from Jai Ho. Looking at Star Power of Salman Khan collecting a Distributor Share of 111 crore or above should not be a difficulty in India (Minus CP, CI and Rajasthan) and Overseas combined.

Box Office Prediction of Jai Ho

First Day Collection - Jai Ho will get huge release of over 4000 screens and actual may be around 4300-4500 range. That means ideally film should collect 40 crore nett in single day on 100% occupancy or near about. But since, Friday is a normal day occupancy in the range of 60% or above will be great. 60% occupancy takes Film opening day numbers to 25 crore nett, but since it is Salman Khan starrer and he has immense following at box office, realistically film should open to 30 crore nett mark or above for sure.

First Weekend (Friday - Sunday) -

If Accepted - 90+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 75-89 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 74 crore nett.

First Week (7 Days) -

If Accepted - 140+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 110-139 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 105 crore nett.

Lifetime Box Office Collection -

If Accepted - 195-200+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 140-190 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 130 crore nett.

Theatrical Verdict of Jai Ho -

Blockbuster - 180+ crore nett.

Super Hit - 145-179 crore nett.
Hit - 125-144 crore nett.
Average - 100-124 crore nett.
Flop - Below 99 crore nett.
Disaster - Below - 85 crore nett.

Prediction - Although Jai Ho is having normal release, still we think it should collect in the range of 200+ crore nett. It is because Salman Khan is a Big Draw at box office and his name itself pulls crowd in numbers to the theaters. And if content is good then it has every chance to challenge the astronomical box office numbers of Dhoom 3. 

Finally 2013 might have ended with Dhoom, but 2014 is certain to start with People's Power. Jai Ho! 

Tell us your thought on Jai Ho business prospect.

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