September 29, 2013

Besharam Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Besharam will be the first step of judging the star power of Ranbir Kapoor. No doubt Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani the last release of Ranbir was a Mega Blockbuster at box office. But for that credit also goes to film hit music and Deepika Padukone factor. But in Besharam film is all dependent on two factors. Ranbir Kapoor star power and film content. If film fails on both this factor then film will find it hard to make to to 100 crore and similarly if film shines in both then expect box office hurricane this Gandhi Jayanti (2nd October).

Trade is waiting with bated breath for a New Superstar to born and Besharam is riding on that. Film buzz is good and songs of the film is slowly but surely picking up with masses. Besharam has got a very good 14 days open week untill the release of another biggie of the year Boss. 14 days is more than enough as film is having the biggest or second biggest release of the year. As of now 3500+ screens are counted for Besharam and it may even go past the magical screen numbers of Chennai Express of 3600+ and be the biggest screen release of the year. A wide screen release shows the confidence of exhibitors on Ranbir and how they trust this new star. So, let's without any further delay start the box office prediction of Besharam. Let's see whether Besharam will be Hit or Flop at Box Office.

Potential of Besharam - As per information Besharam is set to get 3500+ screens on 2nd October (National Holiday - Gandhi Jayanti). That means film can easily go past 30 crore nett in a single day and even have chance to touch 35-36 crore nett in ideal 100% occupancy. 

Film Economics - 

Film Budget - Film budget is set at approx 55 crore as of now.

Satellite Rights - No official statement on Satellite Rights of Besharam, but it should be around 35 crore at least.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release - Around 40+ crore is already recovered from Satellite Rights, Music Rights, Home Video and Others. This is bare minimum. 

Amount needed by Makers/Producers/Investors to Earn Profit - Around another 15 crore needed by the makers for break even and anything above that mark will be the profits. That should be easily recovered from India and Overseas Theatrical in first 2 days. 

Amount needed by Distributors to Earn Profit - Now this is the most important factor for a Film Clean Hit Verdict. If Besharam manages to collect a distributor share of 10-12 crore from Overseas ($ 4-5 Milion gross approx), which should be easily to collect going by the present box office form of Ranbir. Then film needs another 43-45 crore from India Theatricals for break even and anything more will be into profits for Distributors. That means Besharam will attain Clean Hit status when film crosses 90-95 crore nett mark.

Box Office Prediction of Besharam -

Opening Day (National Holiday because of Gandhi Jayanti) - It has every chance of collecting a huge 30 crore nett as it is releasing on wide screen. But realistically 20-25 crore nett will be a great start for the film. Our prediction is somewhere  in the vicinity of 25 crore nett for opening day.

Opening Weekend (5 days Weekend) - 

If Accepted - 85-90+ crore nett. 
If Mixed - 65-75 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 55-60 crore nett.

First Week (9 Days Week) - 

If Accepted - 110-115+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 85-109 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 75-80 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection - 

If Accepted - 140-145+ crore nett. 
If Mixed - 100-139 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 90 crore nett.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Besharam for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
Blockbuster - 140+ cr nett.
Super HIT - 120-139 cr nett.
HIT - 95-119 cr nett.  
Average - 80-94 cr nett (Semi Hit - 90-94, Above Average - 85-89, Average - 80-85, Below Average - 75-79).
Flop - Below 74 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 60 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - Besharam should collect around 130 crore nett in its lifetime. Thus, film will attain Super Hit status and have an outside chance of attaining Blockbuster. That means Distributor Share of Distributor Share of 65 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 15 crore. Total theatrical earnings (Median Value) 80 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical (Median) + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 80 + 40 = 120 crores.

AddaToday Prediction on Besharam.

Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost (Median Value) = 120 - 55 = Rs 65 crore of Profit
Box Office Prediction (Theatrical) - Super hit (130 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on Besharam business prospect. 

Note - Above post is on just predictions and approximations. Once film releases and after its significant run will put up the actual Box Office Status, which might vary from the predictions. Predictions are done from film promos, buzz, star cast power, selected feedback. Actual Box Office depends on Janta Janardhan (Common People who goes to theaters and pay film ticket price).

Readers do report your feedback on the Box office of Besharam as your feedback is outmost important. Cheers! 

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