August 8, 2013

Once Upon Ay Time in Mumbai Dobara Box Office Prediction. Hit or Flop?

Once Upon Ay Time in Mumbai Dobara is releasing on one of the biggest release date that is 15th August. It also stars Akshay Kumar, Imran Khan and Sonakshi Sinha in lead roles. Although release date is near now, still screens are to be locked fully by the makers. Balaji is trying their out-most hard to book as much screens as possible, but there is a big hurdle in Chennai Express in its ways. Chennai Express is getting full on release on 9th August and don't know how it will leave its own screen after just 6 days running and that also for 15th August. So, we assume great battle for screen fight will start from today itself.

Anyways coming to point OUATIMD should get screens anywhere between 1800-2500 depending in many factors plus Chennai Express performance in first 2-3 days and Monday. We take a round figure of 2100-2200 screens for OUATIMD for 15th August as that will be best for box office prediction. Also, do think personally that makers of OUATIMD needs to promote their film aggressively in this last 5-6 days to get a fantastic start at box office. So, without any further delay let's start the box office prediction of one of the much awaited film of the year OUATIMD.

Potential of OUATIMD - Still Screens are to be locked fully and we take a conservative figure of 2200 screens for OUATIMD. It may increase to 2500 also. If OUATIMD gets 100% occupancy ideally then it should get an opening of 22-23 crore at box office. But practically at most 85-90% opening is possible that also because of Independence Day release. Which means that OUATIMD should at most have an opening day collection of 19-20 crore nett, which is big.

Economics of OUATIMD - 

Film Budget - There is no official announcement of the landing cost of OUATIMD. Again, there is a segment of media which has stated the budget as high as 80-85 crore. But as per our assumption Budget of OUATIMD should be around Rs 65-70 crore (Inclusive of Publicity and Marketing).

Satellite Rights - Again, there is no official announcement and satellite right price for OUATIMD should be anywhere in 30+ crore range.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release - Around 38 crore is already recovered from Satellite Rights (considering Satellite rights as 30-32 crore), Music Rights, Home Video and Others. This is bare minimum. 

Amount needed by Makers/Producers/Investors to Earn Profit - Around another 32 crore needed by the makers for break even and anything above that mark will be the profits. That means OUATIMD has to collect around 60-65 crore nett from India & Overseas combined so that makers/producers are in safe zone. It should be easily recovered in first few days of business itself.

Amount needed by Distributors to Earn Profit - Now this is the most important factor for a Film Clean Hit Verdict. If from Overseas OUATIMD is able to collect say $4 Million, which should be easy as it is Akshay Kumar starrer. In fact realistically OUATIMD has every chance to collect $4 Million or even more. If we take $4 Million (Rs 24 crore) as bare minimum from overseas, then theatrical distributor share will be around 10 crore. Then around another 55-60 crore distributor share needs to be recovered from India Theatricals for Distributor to break even and more to earn profit. For that OUATIMD needs to collect around 105-110 crore nett from Indian Box Office for break even and if it crosses this margin then it will be a Clean Hit.

Box Office Prediction of OUATIMD -

Opening Day (National Holiday because of Independence Day) - Huge 18-20 crore nett are on cards. Occupancy is considered around 80-85%+ for the day and if it reaches 90% or more than collection may be even higher with 21-22+ crore nett.

Opening Weekend (Thursday -Independence Day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) - 

If Accepted - 60+ crore nett. (If accepted)
If Mixed - 50-55 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 40-45 crore nett.

First Week (Includes 15th August Holiday) - 

If Accepted - 85+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 70-80 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 60-65 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection - 

If Accepted - 120-130+ crore nett. Yes if Word of Mouth is Excellent then definitely sky is the limit for the film as it gets good run till 30th August.
If Mixed - 95-115 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 85 crore nett.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for OUATIMD for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 200 cr nett+.
Blockbuster - 135-190 cr nett.
Super HIT - 120-134 cr nett.
Clean HIT - 110-119 cr nett.  
Average - 85-109 cr nett (Semi Hit - 105-109, Above Average - 100-104, Average - 90-100, Below Average - 85-89).
Flop - Below 80-85 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 60 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - OUATIMD should collect around 120-125 cr nett in Lifetime. Thus it should become the second biggest Akshay Kumar grosser ever. Also, that means Imran Khan will get his first 100 and Sonakshi Sinha will get her 5th 100. That means a Distributor Share of 60-65 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 12-13 crore. Total theatrical earnings (Median Value) 75 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical (Median) + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 75 + 38 = 113 crores.

AddaToday Final Verdict on OUATIMD.
Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost (Median Value) = 113 - 70 = Rs 43 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) - Super Hit (120-125 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on OUATIMD business prospect. 

Note - Above post is on just predictions and approximations. Once film releases and after its significant run will put up the actual Box Office Status, which might vary from the predictions. Predictions are done from film promos, buzz, star cast power, selected feedback. Actual Box Office depends on Janta Janardhan (Common People who goes to theaters and pay film ticket price).

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