August 3, 2013

Box Office Prediction of Chennai Express. Hit or Flop?

There is a huge element of risk predicting a film which has a potential of doing record breaking business at box office. But that is our business and we will keep it as simple as possible. Would not be nice if all records are broken this August at the Indian box office. 

With less than a week to go for Chennai Express to release in Theaters, buzz is all time high for the film. CE is much awaited and fans worldwide are eagerly waiting for the film to release on EID. This is the right time to open the prediction box for Chennai Express. Will Chennai Express stand on its huge expectation at the box office. Chennai Express stars Superstar Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone. SRK is already known for his star power and Deepika on the other hand is a star in her own ways. Will Chennai Express be able to break all the records at box office. Will Chennai Express be the biggest grosser of the year. So, with any further delay let's start the box office prediction of Chennai Express and its potential. Let's see whether the film will be a Hit of Flop?

Potential of Chennai Express - Still Screens are to be locked fully and it is increasing with each passing day. Despite that if we consider a conservative figure for CE, it should release in at least 3500 screens all India and it may shoot up to never heard figure of 3600-3700+ screens. Thus, it will be the widest release in India surpassing Dabangg 2. With Ticket price hiked by 5-10% on average across all India, film has a huge potential at Box Office. Ideally CE has potential of collecting 37-38 crore nett at Box Office in a single day if registered 100% occupancy. 

Economics of CE - 

Film Budget - There is no official announcement of the landing cost of Chennai Express. Yes, there is a segment of media which has stated the budget as high as 85-90 crore. But as per our assumption Budget of CE should be around Rs 70-75 crore (Inclusive of Publicity and Marketing).

Satellite Rights - Yes, here is an official announcement that satellite rights for CE was sold at around 40 crore + incentive from box office performance.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release - Around 48 crore is already recovered from Satellite Rights, Music Rights, Home Video and Others. This is bare minimum. 

Amount needed by Makers/Producers/Investors to Earn Profit - Around another 25-27 crore needed by the makers for break even and anything above that mark will be the profits. That means CE has to collect around 50-55 crore nett from India & Overseas combined so that makers/producers are in safe zone. It should be easily recovered in first 2 days worldwide.

Amount needed by Distributors to Earn Profit - Now this is the most important factor for a Film Clean Hit Verdict. If from Overseas CE is able to collect say $8 Million, which should be easy as it is SRK starrer and he is the undisputed King there. In fact realistically CE has every chance to collect $10 Million or even more. If we take $8 Million (Rs 46-47 crore) as bare minimum from overseas, then theatrical distributor share will be around 19-20 crore. Then around another 55 crore distributor share needs to be recovered from India Theatricals for Distributor to break even and more to earn profit. For that CE needs to collect around 110 crore nett from Indian Box Office for break even and if it crosses this margin then it will be a Clean Hit.

Box Office Prediction of CE -

Opening Day (National Holiday because of EID) - Huge 30 crore nett or even more, with every chance of breaking ETT Opening Day and Biggest Single Day Record. Occupancy is considered around 80-85%+ for the day and if it reaches 90% or more than collection may be even higher with 33-34+ crore nett.

Opening Weekend (Thursday Paid Preview, Friday - EID, Saturday - BASI EID, Sunday) - 

If Accepted - 70+ crore nett. Will be a Record.
If Mixed - 55-65 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 50 crore nett.

First Week (Includes 15th August Holiday)

If Accepted - 115+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 95-114 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 85-90 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection

If Accepted - 160-170+ crore nett. Yes if Word of Mouth is Excellent then definitely 200 crore nett is possible.
If Mixed - 125-150 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 115-120 crore nett.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Chennai Express for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 200 cr nett+.
Blockbuster - 140-190 cr nett.
Super HIT - 125-139 cr nett.
Clean HIT - 115-124 cr nett.  
Average - 90-114 cr nett (Semi Hit - 110-114, Above Average - 109-105, Average - 95-104, Below Average - 90-94).
Flop - Below 85-90 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 60-65 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - Chennai Express should collect around 150-160 cr nett in Lifetime. Thus it should become the biggest SRK grosser ever. That means a Distributor Share of 80 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 25-30 crore. Total theatrical earnings (Median Value) 107.5 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical (Median) + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 107.5 + 48 = 155.5 crores.

AddaToday Final Verdict on CE.
Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost (Median Value) = 155.5 - 75 = Rs 80 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) - Blockbuster (150-160 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on Chennai Express business prospect. 

Note - Above post is on just predictions and approximations. Once film releases and after its significant run will put up the actual Box Office Status, which might vary from the predictions. Predictions are done from film promos, buzz, star cast power, selected feedback. Actual Box Office depends on Janta Janardhan (Common People who goes to theaters and pay film ticket price).

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