May 28, 2013

Box Office Prediction of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani. Hit or Flop?

Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani releases on 31 May, 2013 and a lot is riding on this film this year. Film is one of the much awaited release of the year. It stars Ranbir Kapoor in lead role who has given back to back hits with Rockstar and Barfi!. Deepika Padukone stars in the film who has also having blast at the box office in recent years with Cocktail and Race 2. YJHD is directed by Ayan Mukerji which last film with Ranbir Kapoor was critically acclaimed Wake Up Sid!

With so much expectation, there may be every chance that YJHD will rock the box office. Film music is already Hit with two songs are Chartbusters. With so much positive vibe let's start the Box Office Prediction of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani and see whether film will be a Hit or Flop?
Potential of YJHD - Although still the screens are to be locked all India, but still an estimated release of 2300-2500 screens is expected for YJHD. Thus, it becomes the biggest release of Ranbir Kapoor starrer ever surpassing his last Rockstar and Barfi! release. If film gets an earth shattering opening at Box Office then even a 20 crore nett is possible. But, despite Ranbir Kapoor manifold increase in fan following in last few years such opening is unlikely and at most his film can take bumper opening which means YJHD can accumulate an estimated 15 crore nett in a single day.

Economics of YJHD

Film Budget - YJHD landing cost (total film budget inclusive of Marketing & Publicity) will be around 50-55 crore.

Satellite Rights - Although their is no official statement on the Satellite Right of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani, but as per rumour Sony has bagged the exclusive rights for YJHD around 25+ crore.

Amount Recovered Pre-Release of YJHD - Around a minimum of 30+ crore is recovered already from Satellite Rights, Music Rights and Home Video.

Amount needed by Makers/Producers/Investors to Earn Profit - Around another 20-25 crore needs by the makers for break even and anything above that mark will be profits. That means YJHD has to collect around 50+ crore nett* from India & Overseas combined so that makers/producers are in safe zone.

Amount needed by Distributors to Earn Profit - If Overseas Theatrical Distributor Share is considered around 10-15 crore, which should be easily recovered as Ranbir Kapoor and Deepika Padukone has decent following in Overseas. Then around another 35-40 crore distributor share needs to be recovered from India Theatricals for Distributor to break even and more to earn profit. For that YJHD needs to collect around 70-75+ crore nett from Indian Box Office and if it crosses this margin then YJHD will be a Clean Hit.
Box Office Prediction of YJHD

Opening Day - 12+ crore nett. Since, Friday is working day anything above 12 crore nett will be unrealistic right now.

Opening Weekend

If Accepted - 40+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 30-35 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 30 crore nett.

First Week

If Accepted - 60+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 50 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less or equal to 40-45 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection

If Accepted - 100+ crore nett.
If Mixed - 70-80 crore nett.
If Rejected - Less than 60-65 crore nett.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 200 cr nett+.
Blockbuster - 125-190 cr nett.
Super HIT - 110-124 cr nett.
Clean HIT - 80-109 cr nett.  
Average - 65-79 cr nett (Semi Hit - 75-79, Above Average - 70-75, Average - 65-70, Below Average - 60-65).
Flop - Below 60 cr nett.
Disaster - Below 50 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani should collect around 85-90 cr nett in Lifetime. That means a Distributor Share of 45 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 12-15 crore. Total theatrical earnings 57-60 crore (India + Overseas). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical (Median) + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) = 58.5 + 30 = 88.5 crores.

AddaToday Final Verdict on YJHD.
Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost (Median Value) = 88.5 - 52.5 = Rs 36 crore of Profit
Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) - Hit (85-90 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani business prospect. 

Note - Above post is on just predictions and approximations. Once film releases and after its significant run will put up the actual Box Office Status, which might vary from the predictions. Predictions are done from film promos, buzz, star cast power, selected feedback. Actual Box Office depends on Janta Janardhan (Common People who goes to theaters and pay film ticket price).

Notice - We have seen our predictions have been copied and pasted by many other trade portals. Readers do report us of any such misdoings and we will take appropriate strict action on them!

Readers do report your feedback on the Box office of Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani as your feedback is outmost important. Cheers!

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