Joker Box Office Collection, Business & Economics. Hit or Flop. Predictions.

Akshay Kumar and Sonakshi Sinha starrer Joker is on schedule for release on 31st August. Everyone be it Trade Pundits or the audience all are little bamboozled with low promotion of Joker by the lead actors. Is it the over expose of Rowdy Rathore cast some time back or some other reason, only time will tell. For the time being let's look into the Box Office point of view of Joker. How much Joker needs to be a success at the Indian Box Office.

Budget/Cost - Joker is made on very controlled budget of around 40 crore as informed by the makers and even a low marketing and publicity cost and everything else will wrap the film under 50 crore (max) post release budget. Which is extremely nice by today's over hyped and over board budgets.

Amount Recovered Pre-release - Already it is speculated that Makers of Joker have sold the Theatrical, Satellite, Home Video and Overseas all combined to UTV for a sum of around 40 crores. Which is very moderate considering Akshay Kumar starrer. Hence, recovering the amount will not much be a headache. Of 40 crore at least Satellite, Home Video should be a minimum of 12-15 crore. Also, music will fetch another 4-5 crore. Which take pre-release recovery to 16-20 crore already.

Amount need to be recovered Theatrically (India + Overseas) - After deduction of Amount Recovered Pre-release mentioned above from the cost of the film, another 30-34 crore needs to be recovered from theatrically. Going by previous Akshay Kumar starrer Joker should at least recover a minimum of 7-8 crore Distributor Share (15 crore gross) from Overseas. Even Akshay Kumar last Rowdy Rathore fetch 9 crore distributor share (19 crore gross) from Overseas. This is minimum and actual should be easily more going by the trend. So, deducting overseas figure another 23-27 crore distributor share from India. That means around 50-54 crore nett all India will recover all its cost and further will add to profits. For a Akshay Kumar starrer collecting a 50+ crore nett all India at this phase of time is a cakewalk and Joker is looking extremely plus project for all associated with it.

Potential of Joker - With low to no promotion of Joker it is certain that film will kick of campaign with two factors. First Akshay Kumar star power and his faithful fans. Second, Word of Mouth. Generally for a big budget film WOM works on weekdays, but in case of Joker it may even start as early as second day itself. With around 2000-2200 screen release Joker has immense potential. An Ideal 90-95% occupancy can produce a 18-20 crore nett in a single day easily. So, if it opens big it can recover all its cost in opening weekend itself.

Opening Day Prediction. Around 10-12 crore nett all India. Looks little low because of low promotion.

Opening Weekend Prediction.

If Accepted - 35+ crore nett (Easily). Taking 60% occupancy.

If Average -  30-35 crore nett.

If Rejected - Below 30 crore nett.

Opening Week Prediction.

If Accepted - 55-60+ crore nett (Easily)

If Average -  50-55 crore nett.

If Rejected - Below 50 crore nett.

Lifetime Collection Prediction.

If Accepted - 100+ crore net.

If Average -  75-100 crore nett.

If Rejected - Below 75 crore nett.

Theatrical Verdict for Joker. Since, significant amount of Joker is already recovered by Satellite, Music and Other rights even before its release. It need a good three-four days of business for full recovery of amount. After that all will be profits. Also, Joker is expected to earn substantial from overseas which will even add to the revenues. Still Theatrical verdict for any film is important for its box office status. Lets evaluate.

We can easily assume that Joker should collect around 8-10 crore distributor share from Overseas. Hence, for Theatrical Hit it needs another 40-42 crore distributor share from India (Assuming Budget of Joker 50 crore at max). For this Joker needs a Lifetime collection of 75 crore nett for Clean Hit, which can be easily achieved if it gets positive Word of Mouth.

What Lifetime Collection needs to be for Joker for Theatrical (HIT, Super HIT, Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster) -
 
ATBB (All Time Blockbuster) - 170 cr nett+.

Blockbuster - 130-170 cr nett.

Super HIT - 100-130 cr nett.

Clean HIT - 75-100 cr nett.
Trade HIT (Profit after adding Satellite, Music and Overseas figure to India Theatrical) - Around 16-20 crore already recovered before release. Another 30-34 crore distributor share (55-60 crore nett collection) need to be recovered from India and Overseas Theatrical. Above that it is Trade HIT.

Average - 50-60 cr nett.

Flop - Below 50 cr nett.

Disaster - Below 40 cr nett.

AddaToday Prediction (Profits & Box Office) - Joker should collect around 85-90 cr nett in Lifetime. That means a Distributor Share of 45-47 crore all India. Overseas distributor share should be around 8-10 crore. Total theatrical earnings around 55 crore (India + Overseas Distributor Share Approx). Total Amount Earned = Total Theatrical + (Satellite + Music + Other rights) =  55(approx) + 18(approx) = 73 crores.

AddaToday Final Verdict on Joker.

Profits - Total Amount Earned - Film Cost = 73 - 50 = Rs 23 crore of Profit

Box Office Verdict (Theatrical) - Clean HIT (85-90 crore nett all India). 

Tell us your thought on Joker business prospect. 

For HQ Latest Photos Kindly Visit - Photos.addatoday.com

For HD Videos Kindly Visit - Videos.addatoday.com

Do Follow us on Twitter at @bollyaddatoday or Facebook at Bolly Addatoday for Instant Indian Box Office Updates